The 25 Elections to Watch This July
This month, it’s (almost) entirely about Arizona.
After a busy stretch in May and June, the elections calendar is quieting down. Only one state is holding its regular primaries in July.
It just so happens that this one state, Arizona, is hosting a string of primaries that showcase the extent of the Republican Party’s rightward drift.
Arizona conservatives have spread false conspiracy theories about voter fraud since Donald Trump’s defeat here in 2020, and officials who fanned those flames are still running for office all these years later. Many Republicans who tried to overturn Trump’s 2020 loss will be on the ballot in the GOP’s July 21 primaries—including a fake elector.
Plus, a former MAGA sheriff is running for Congress, and the far-right Arizona Freedom Caucus is looking to grow its ranks by backing candidates in a dozen legislative districts and working to kick Republican incumbents off of the state’s utility commission.
Also on the menu: Anger over Trump’s immigration crackdown has spilled into municipal elections.
That is notably the case in Mesa, which has closely partnered with ICE for a long time; elsewhere, local elections are revolving around the fate of immigration detention centers. Candidates are debating housing and data centers as well.
And far from Arizona, Republicans are choosing their nominee for South Dakota governor in a runoff and Georgia voters are choosing a new member of Congress.
Explore all this, and more, in our guide to the 25 elections to watch in July.
The calendar starts with the Arizona primaries on July 21, followed by Georgia’s special election and South Dakota’s primary runoffs on July 28.
Return on and after each Election Day; we’ll update this page as the results are known. (Bolts may add more key races if the stakes become more apparent closer to Election Day.) As always, this guide is just our selection of races to monitor and not an exhaustive list of all elections in July.
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Statewide elections
Arizona governor
July 21 | GOP primary
| Burned by a series of statewide losses after they nominated far-right figures, some of the Arizona GOP’s establishment hoped to nominate Karrin Taylor Robson for governor this year; they got Trump to endorse her, a move that seemed to seal the deal. But Trump blew up their plans two months later by also endorsing U.S. Representative Andy Biggs, former leader of the federal Freedom Caucus. Taylor Robson ended up dropping out, making Biggs the clear favorite. Still, Biggs must face David Schweikert, a fellow House member who was reprimanded by the House in 2020 for major ethics violations tied to his campaign fundraising. The primary winner will face Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs in the fall. |
| Result: Stay tuned after July 21. |
Arizona attorney general
July 21 | GOP primary
| Earlier this spring, Warren Petersen, the Republican president of the Arizona Senate, handed records related to the 2020 election to the FBI. This drew a strong rebuke from Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes, whom Petersen is now challenging; Mayes accused Petersen of continuing to fan false conspiracy theories about Trump’s loss in the presidential race that year. Before facing Mayes, Petersen must secure the GOP nomination against Rodney Glassman, an attorney who once ran against Senator John McCain as a Democrat but is now a Republican. The Arizona Republic reports that the campaign has been marked by Petersen bringing up unproven allegations a sexual assault against Glassman. |
| Result: Stay tuned after July 21. |
Arizona secretary of state
July 21 | GOP primary
| Following the 2020 election, Arizona conservatives forced an audit of the results, pursued baseless investigations, and pushed for new voting restrictions. That record is now spilling into the GOP primary for secretary of state, the office that oversees Arizona elections, with the winner set to face Democratic incumbent Adrian Fontes in the fall. Alexander Kolodin, a state representative, filed lawsuits in 2020 to overturn Joe Biden’s victory, earning a sharp rebuke from a judge that “gossip and innuendo cannot substitute for earnest pleadings and procedure.” He then sponsored bills to tighten voting and has attacked Fontes for introducing rules he says make elections unsecure. Kolodin’s opponent Gina Swoboda used to chair the state Republican Party. She is criticizing Kolodin for going too far. But she, too, has sued Arizona officials, hoping to force stricter election rules, and is also tied to groups that spread false claims about voter fraud. She also helped efforts to target voter rolls after the 2020 election. |
| Result: Stay tuned after July 21. |
Arizona Corporation commission
July 21 | GOP primary
| The far-right faction of the state GOP is hoping to oust a Republican incumbent off of the state’s Corporation Commission, the agency that oversees and regulates the state’s public utilities. State Representative Ralph Heap, a member of the Arizona Freedom Caucus, is challenging incumbents Kevin Thompson and Nick Myers; all three will appear on one ballot, and the top two will proceed to face a pair of Democratic challengers in November. (Heap was running in tandem with another Freedom Caucus member who dropped out of the race in April.) Heap faults the incumbents for going along with the closure of a coal plant, which he thinks is a betrayal of Trump’s energy agenda, and for not cracking down on environmental and diversity goals set by local public utilities. Earlier this year, Arizona conservatives mounted an unusually expensive and ultimately losing bid to control the local utility that covers the Phoenix region. Earlier this year, Arizona conservatives mounted an unusually expensive and ultimately losing bid to control the local utility that covers the Phoenix region. |
| Result: Stay tuned after July 21. |
Arizona schools superintendent
July 21 | GOP primary
| A longtime champion of school vouchers, Schools Superintendent Tom Horne now frequently rails against left-wing educators, diversity programs, and trans students. But the Republican Party’s archconservative faction is still critical of his tenure, in large part because they oppose some regulations he has proposed on Arizona’s voucher program. Horne faces State Treasurer Kimberly Yee, who echoes this criticism and is running with support from Horne’s far-right critics. |
| Result: Stay tuned after July 21. |
South Dakota governor
July 28 | GOP Runoff
| Four candidates finished within 10 percentage points in the June primary for governor, forcing a runoff between Governor Larry Rhoden, who was the lieutenant governor until Kristi Noem joined the Trump administration last year, and businessman Toby Doeden. Doeden is running on a starkly conservative platform that proposes taking that state further to the right than under Rhoden; most notably, he is proposing to eliminate all property taxes. |
| Result: Stay tuned after July 21. |
Congressional elections
Arizona’s 1st District
July 21 | Dem and GOP primaries
| This district, which covers Phoenix’s northeastern suburbs, is expected to be one of the top battlegrounds for control of the U.S. House this fall. But first, both parties are choosing their nominees to replace Republican David Schweikert, who is running for governor instead. On the GOP side, former NFL player Jay Feely is the frontrunner, having received Trump’s endorsement. He still faces Joseph Chaplik, a former three-term state lawmaker who has attacked him with racist comments against Feely’s relief work in Haiti after the 2010 earthquake. Democrats are hosting a rematch of the 2024 primary between Marlene Galán-Woods, a former news anchor who is backed by national Democrats, and Amish Shah, a former lawmaker, who narrowly beat Galán-Woods but then lost to Schweikert by three percentage points in the fall. |
| Result: Stay tuned after July 21. |
Arizona’s 5th District
July 21 | GOP primary
| Far-right incumbent Andy Biggs is running for governor, and former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb wants to replace him. Trump’s endorsement makes Lamb the frontrunner, but Daniel Keenan, a wealthy businessman, is spending his own money to win. Lamb is also facing new allegations that he threatened women after sending them unwanted sexual messages. In his time as sheriff, Lamb tried to aggressively investigate false claims of voter fraud, and he was also known for his nativist messaging and policies, Bolts has reported. |
| Result: Stay tuned after July 21. |
Georgia’s 13th District
July 28 | Special election
| State Representative Jasmine Clark, a Democrat, is very likely to represent this congressional district come 2027 after winning the regular Democratic primary in May. And yet she isn’t running in this July special election to fill the seat through the end of 2026. |
| The death of longtime Democratic U.S. Representative David Scott this spring left the seat vacant but Clark chose not to run in the resulting special election because she would have had to resign from the state legislature to do so. Instead, the late congressmember’s daughter Marcyne Scott is running for this short-term job, as are three other Democrats and two Republicans. The election may go to a runoff if no one receives more than 50 percent of the vote, though the district is staunchly Democratic. |
| Result: Stay tuned after July 28. |
City government
Mesa, Arizona
July 21
| The city of Mesa has long joined ICE’s 287(g) program, meaning that local police is empowered to act as federal immigration agents, and local immigrants’ rights activists have pressured the city council to quit the program. This summer, candidates in the two city council elections disagree on whether the city should remain in the program, Bolts and the Arizona Mirror reported last month. Read our story for more on how immigration enforcement is shaping these local elections. |
| Result: Stay tuned after July 21. |
South Tucson, Arizona
July 21
| In South Tucson, a small town completely enclosed within Tucson, progressive city councilors faced recall votes last year, with conservative critics angry at their initiatives to help homeless people, such as housing assistance and soup kitchens. The incumbents, Cesar Aguirre, Brian Flagg, and Roxanna Valenzuela, survived easily, Bolts reported last year. Since then, the council has ended the town’s contract with Flock, the embattled tech company that installs AI surveillance cameras with automatic license plate readers. And now, Aguirre, Flagg, and Valenzuela are all seeking reelection. This is another opportunity for their adversaries to oust them, or for voters to signal they support the direction they’ve pursued. |
| Result: Stay tuned after July 21. |
Chandler, Arizona
July 21
| The conservative mayor of this Arizona city is retiring, and two men are running to replace him: City Councilmember Matt Orlando and state Representative Jeff Weninger. While the election is nonpartisan, Orlando is endorsed by local Democrats, and Weninger is a Republican who has backed conservative bills like the state’s 15-week abortion ban. The two have mainly clashed on how much to tax businesses, including data centers, SanTan Sun News reports. |
| Result: Stay tuned after July 21. |
Marana, Arizona
July 21
| Angered by local officials’ decision to approve a data center in this suburb of Tucson, a slate of candidates—Greg Johnsen, Julie Prince, and Sue Ritz—are challenging Mayor Jon Prost and some city councilors. This slate of challengers also say they oppose federal plans to set up an immigration detention center, as Bolts and The Arizona Mirror reported in June. |
| Result: Stay tuned after July 21. |
Legislative primaries
Arizona’s 2nd Senate District
July 21 | GOP primary
| Republican state Senator Shawnna Bolick joined Democratic lawmakers in 2024 to repeal the state’s 19th-century ban on nearly all abortions. The ban had just been reinstated by the state supreme court, where her husband Clint Bolick sits. Bolick’s vote earned her hostility from the state GOP’s far-right faction, with whom she has clashed more broadly. Still, Bolick herself has an archconservative record that involves asking Congress in late 2020 to overturn Joe Biden’s victory and drafting a bill to allow the legislature to disregard a presidential race’s result. In this primary, Bolick faces Timothy Ferrara, who is running on a MAGA platform that includes ending all early voting. |
| Result: Stay tuned after July 21. |
Arizona’s 27th Senate District
July 21 | GOP primary
| Anthony Kern, a former police officer with a history of misconduct, is one of Arizona’s leading far-right politicians. Most notably, he served as a fake elector in 2020 when the Trump campaign was looking to overturn the results of the state’s presidential race, a role for which he was indicted in 2024. Kern unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2024 instead of seeking reelection to the state Senate, but he is now making a comeback by challenging his successor Kevin Payne in this primary, and the Freedom Caucus is supporting his bid. |
| Result: Stay tuned after July 21. |
Arizona: House Races in Eight Districts
July 21 | GOP PRimaries
| Arizona’s Freedom Caucus, a group of far-right lawmakers who have pushed for their party to embrace hardline policies from overhauling elections to criminalizing drag, are trying to solidify their influence in this summer’s legislative primaries. Their biggest prize is Kern’s comeback to the Senate (see above), but the group is also looking to grow its ranks in the House. Bolts is watching eight legislative districts where the Freedom Caucus is supporting candidates for the state House to track their success. In the 7th and 28th, they’ve endorsed challengers to incumbents Walter Blackman and David Livingston; the latter is a longtime lawmaker and repeat target of the far-right. The caucus is also targeting seats in the 3rd, 10th, 13th, 14th, 19th, and 30th districts. |
| Result: Stay tuned after July 21. |
Arizona’s 20th Senate District
July 21 | Dem primary
| Alma Hernandez, a state representative who was recently rebuked by her party for siding with Republicans on some legislative votes, is looking for a promotion to the state Senate. She faces Rocque Perez, a former member of the Tucson city council who is critical of Hernandez’ record; he faults her, for instance, for introducing legislation that would have banned encampments on college campuses, a proposal that he says “suppresses free speech about the crisis in Gaza.” |
| Result: Stay tuned after July 21. |