What To Track in the 2021 Primaries & Specials? A week-by-week guide
Daniel Nichanian
Governors and lawmakers, judges and mayors, and powerful county officials like prosecutors and sheriff are on the 2021 ballot. Here’s what I’m watching as the elections unfold, with particular attention to races where I can identify some ideological contrasts.
September: This site tracks local elections, but this is an uncommonly busy month globally
| NORWAY Act I: 9/13 | The left bids to come back to power after 8 years of governance by the conservative coalition. Context. | Labor-led center-left win |
| CALIFORNIA Act II: 9/14 | GOP effort to recall Dem Gov. Gavin Newsom made it to the ballot. | Newsom |
| CANADA Act III: 9/20 | Justin Trudeau called snap elections, and then the polls tightened. Will Liberals keep power, and will they gain a majority gov? Read the CBC’s preview of what to watch, including on the far-right’s rise. | Liberal-Trudeau minority gov. |
| ICELAND Act IV: 9/25 | The parliamentary elections will decide who has power in the island. | |
| GERMANY Act V: 9/26 | Merkel is not seeking a new term, & the (social-dem) SPD hope to replace the (conservative) CDU in the chancellorship. Big Q is who’ll be in the ruling coalition; plenty of strategic and ideological muddle between the parties. | |
| SWITZERLAND Act VI: 9/26 | The Swiss vote on whether to legalize gay marriage. Context. | YES |
September 14: The recall is here
| CA | The Republican effort to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom has made it to the ballot. This one you know all about. | Newsom |
July 27 and August 3: Congressional specials
| TX-06 | With Democrats already eliminated, its’ an all-GOP runoff in this special election between state Rep. Ellzey and Trump-endorsed Susan Wright. | Ellzey |
June 22: New York (yes, beyond the city) has its local elections
Mayor
| New York City | If you’re here, you know about this one. Ranked-choice voting; strategic questions; scandals; residency questions; and so on. Some previews here or here. | Adams |
| Buffalo | India Walton challenges incumbent mayor, Byron Brown, from the left in the Dem. primary. See previews here or here. | Walton |
| Rochester | Mayor Lovely Warren, criticized for her policies after police killing of Daniel Prude, faces WFP-endorsed Melik Evans. | Evans |
New York City Council
| District 7 (M) | One of the highest-profile primaries has drawn a crowded field of 15 candidates, and plenty of ideological interests. | Abreu |
| District 22 (Q) | Tiffany Cabán runs for office, two years after her close lose for DA in Queens. | Cabán |
| District 37 (B) | Another district where the left is making a push, e.g. with an AOC endorsement for Sandy Nurse over Darma DIaz. Context. | Nurse |
| District 9 | A very tight council election featuring Kristin Richardson Jordan, an AOC-endorsed democratic socialist, who trails in R1. | Jordan |
| A DSA caucus? | Will DSA make progress in NYC? They’ve endorsed Cabán, Kaur (D23), Abreu (D14), Hollingsworth (D35), West (D39), and Avilés (D38). More context here. | Cabán & Avilés |
| The WFP nods? | The Working Families Party endorsed a much longer list of candidates in 27 districts; review list here to compare to results. |
Other New York City elections
| Manhattan DA | One of the most powerful DA offices will have a new office-holder, with stakes for policing, prosecution, sentencing, and much else, amid heavy spending. | Bragg |
| Comptroller | A crowded open primary has become another de facto battle between the city’s left and moderate factions. Preview. | Lander |
| Advocate | Jumaane Williams, a rare incumbent seeking re-election in prominent NY positions, and a progressive faces a primary. | Williams |
| Borough presidents: Dems | There are many crowded borough president primaries in New York, including in Brooklyn, Manhattan, and the Bronx. | Levine (Manhattan), Reynoso (Brooklyn), Gibson (Bronx) |
| Borough presidents: GOP | Staten Island has the main GOP primary in NYC. Trump waded into this GOP primary with an endorsement of former Rep. Vito Fossella. | Fossella |
Other local elections
| Erie County sheriff (Dem) | The candidate endorsed by the local Dem Party has since fearmongered, and lost to Kim Beaty. Context. | Beaty |
| Albany: council | Gabriella Romero, a progressive public defender, runs for council | Romero |
| Syracuse: School board | Debates around presence of police play out in elections for school board, here with activist Twiggy Billue. | Billue among winners |
| Westchester County clerk | An obscure election is under the spotlight. Preview. | Idoni |
June 8: It’s the big day in both New Jersey and Virginia
Statewide
| Virginia: Gov | Dem: 5 candidates are vying for the party nod. [I’ll skip choosing a preview on this one; if you’re here you probably know about it.] | McAuliffe |
| Virginia: Lieutenant Governor | Dem: An open race attracted 6 Dems. See candiate rundowns here and here. Progressive support mainly for Rasoul, while the Gov. has endorsed Ayala. | Ayala |
| Virginia: Attorney General | Dem: Incumbent AG Mark Herring faces challenger Jay Jones, who says the AG should be more proactive on pushing for CJ reforms. | Herring |
| New Jersey: Gov. | GOP: Three candidates are vying to take on Dem Gov. Murphy, with two of them being especially intent on the Trumpian lane. Preview. | Ciattarelli |
Prosecutor elections
| Charlottesville, VA | A contested Democratic primary, featuring an incumbent vs former public defender. | Platania |
| Norfolk, VA | 3 candidates in open Dem primary; reform questions central. Office drew widespread attention for dropping marijuana cases years ago. | Fatehi |
Legislative elections
| NH | A special general election in Merrimack County, vacated by a Dem, that went from +1 Clinton to +10 Biden per DKE. | Dem hold |
| NJ: D2 | GOP: Seth Grossman was abandoned by the national GOP for his statements duringa 2018 congressional race. Now trying to make it to Senate. | Polistina |
| NJ: D37 | Dem: To replace party’s retiring ML. Contested primary between G. Johnson, who’s amassed prominent party nods (incl. Sweeney), & V. Huttle | Johnson |
| VA: HD9 | GOP: A Trump election-lawyer, Williams, challenging incumbent GOP Del. Poindexter | Williams |
| VA: HD31 | Dems: Progressive inc. Elizabeth Guzman, who dropped out of LG race, faces primary. | Guzman |
| VA: HD50 | Dem: Lee Carter, who drew a lot of attention in 2017 for his win as a socialist, faces primary challengers at home while running for Gov. | Lopes-Maldonado |
| VA: HD79 | Dem: inc. Steve Heretick challenged from left by Nadarius Clark. Among issues DSA-endorsed Clark attacked Heretick for: his vote against the law to enable localities to remove Confederate statutes. | Clark |
Mayoral elections
| Atlantic City, NJ | In this heated Dem primary, the challenger (Foley)’s past support for Trump has been an issue. | Small Sr. |
| Edison, NJ | You may remember viral news of a racist mailer in a local election here in 2017. A Dem alleged to have been involved in it is running for mayor. | Joshi |
June 5: The Texas runoffs
Mayors
| Fort Worth | Parker (chief of staff of retiring GOP mayor) & Peoples (head of county Dem Party). Note: With Parker’s win, Fort Worth remains nation’s biggest city with a GOP mayor. Preview. | Parker |
| Arlington | Another Tarrant County municipality with an outgoing GOP mayor and a runoff. Technically nonpartisan. Preview. | Ross |
| McAllen | In Hidalgo Co., open (technically) race: Republican Jose Villalobos vs Vela Whitacre. | Villalobos |
City councils
| Fort Worth | Four runoffs. This preview details important stakes for policing, trans rights, among other issues. NOTE: With these results, Dems are claiming a majority on city council. | Williams, Firestone, Nettles, Beck |
| San Antonio | Progressives Teri Castillo (profile, profile) and Jalen McKee-Rodriguez (profile), both backed by DSA, WFP, and TOP, are vying to make it to city council. | Both win |
| Grand Prairie | In this city in Tarrant Co., progressive are watching Junior Ezeonu, a 22-year old black candidate running against an incumbent in a city long run by white politicians. | Ezeonu |
June 1: Democrats defend a congressional seat
| NM-01 | It’s the general election in the New Mexico seat vacated by Deb Haaland. The district voted for Biden by 23 percentage points in 2020. | DEM HOLD |
May 18: Pennsylvania’s local elections
District attorney
| Philly: Dem | Larry Krasner, nationally-watched reform-minded DA, faces a primary challenger, endorsed by the police union. Stakes on probation, exonerations, drug policy, police, and immigration, among other issues. | Krasner |
Statewide judges
| Supreme Court: GOP | Republicans choose their nominee in the nation’s only Supreme Court race this year. (Dems already only have one candidate, Maria McLaughlin) | Brobson |
| Commonwealth Court: Dem | This court has 2 slots open, so Dems will have to choose 2 of 4 candidates. Various endorsements, e.g. Lori Dumas has WFP nod. Preview. | Dumas & Spurgeon |
| Superior Court: Dem | A contested Dem primary for one seat. Candidates include WFP-endorsed former public defender Timika Lane. Preview. | Lane |
Mayor & city council
| Pittsburgh Mayor | The mayor Peduto faces a challenger in a race where his record on policing has been at issue. | Gainey |
| State College | Progressive group is working to get 3 candidates elected to this borough council as part of a broader effort in Central PA. | Progressive sweep |
Local judges
| Philadelphia: Dem | Progressives have endorsed a slate in hope of changing the city toward new practices on evictions and bail. Preview. | ≈8 of slate win |
| Allegheny Co.: Dem | A group of reform candidates, the “Slate of Eight,” are running to flip the bench toward more decarceral policies. Preview. | 5 in slate win |
| Elsewhere | WHYY reviews judicial candidates running in many counties in the Philly suburbs. |
Legislative elections
| Four special elections | HD59, HD60, SD48 (GOP-held) SD22 (Dem-held). Details | All holds |
Referenda
| Statewide | Question 1: would allow a majority of lawmakers to end an emergency health disaster declaration Preview. | YES |
| Statewide | Question 3: An equal rights amendment enshrining prohibition against discrimination. Preview. | YES |
| Pittsburgh | A referendum to prohibit no-knock warrants. | YES |
| Allegheny Co. | A referendum against solitary confinement. Preview. | YES |
May 4: Two mayoral elections
| Omaha | Jean Stothert, the GOP mayor of Omaha, faced a runoff against R. J. Neary. (Technically non-partisan election.) See below for more about the first round. | Stothert |
| Anchorage | Republican Benson versus Democrat Dunbar: the runoff. | Benson leds |
May 4: It’s Ohio’s turn
| Cincinnati mayor | First round of the mayoral election, with 6 candidates taking various positions on urgent policing and housing matters. Preview. | Pureval and Mann |
| Cincinnati: Issue 3 | A ballot initiative, supported by affordable housing activists & opposed by the mayor, for $50 million investment in affordable housing fund. | NO |
May 8: Virginia, part 1
| Virginia Gov: R | The GOP chooses its nominee for govenor in a convention. Candidates competing on who is more supportive of Trump. | Youngkin |
| Virginia AG: R | The GOP running for the AG nomination include a similar spectrum as in the governors’ race. Post-mortem. | Miyares |
April 24 & May 1: congressional specials
| Louisiana’s 2nd District | Special election to replace Cedric Richmond. Runoff is a face-off between 2 Dems: Richmond-endorsed Troy Carter vs. Karen Carter Peterson, backed by some prominent progressives. Preview. | Carter |
| TX’s 6th CD | First round of a special election: top 2 candidates move to a runoff. Will one party be shut out? Will Trump-endorsed candidate move on? Preview. | Wright vs. Ellzey: all-R |
May 1: Texas local elections
| Austin | Referendum could recriminalize homelessness. | YES |
| Fort Worth | Mayoral race to replace the outgoing GOP mayor. Only first round. | Parker (R) vs Peoples (D) |
| Lubbock | Referendum on an ordinance banning abortion in city limits. Context | YES |
| San Antonio | Mayoral election; policing activists say no candidate is pushing enough change. | Nirenberg |
| San Antonio | Referendum would weaken police union. Preview. | NO |
April 6: There’s a statewide election in Wisconsin, and mayoral elections take center-stage
Statewide
| Wisconsin | The state will elect its superintendent of education, in runoff between progressive Jill Underly (backed by labor unions) and Deborah Kerr (backed by Scott Walker & charter school advocates). Context. Also here on DeVos’s involvement. | Underly |
Judges
| WI | Two Court of Appeals elections, in red-leaning distrits: Conservatives boost Shelley Grogan & Gregory Gilll to strengthen power in state courts. | Grill & Grogan |
Referendum
| St Louis | Whether to renew the earnings tax for 5 years. Context. | YES |
Legislatures
| CA: AD79 | Open Dem seat. Assemblymember Weber’s appointment as SoS opened up this Dem seat to a crowded special; will go to a runoff if no one gets 50%. | Dem |
| MO: HD45 | Open Dem-seat. Dems favored to hold this Boone Co.-area seat in a special. | DEM |
| OK: SD22 | Open GOP seat. A special election will fill the seat of GOP Stephanie Bice, who was elected to the House in 2020. | GOP |
| WI: SD13, AD89 | Open GOP seats. The GOP is defending two red seats, one in each chamber. | GOP |
Mayors and city councils
| Anchorage, AK | Mayor: An anti-homeless movement is trying to take over the city. Preview. | Bronson, Dunbar (likely) |
| Jackson, MS | Mayor: Chokwe Lumumba seeks a new term in Dem primary. His progressive promises had drawn national attention. Context. | Lumumba |
| Omaha, NE | Mayor: One of the bigger cities with a GOP mayor. The first round will determine who moves to the runoff. Preview of the stakes for policing and criminal justice. | RUNOFF: Stothert vs. Neary |
| St. Louis, MO | Mayor: The two most progressive candidates in the first round moved to the runoff, but contrasts remain between T. Jones (who’s generally staked more progressive stances) and C. Spencer. On policing, issues like cash bail & sex work on the table. | Jones |
| St. Louis | City council: Progressives are trying to take over the local board by flipping key council seats. Preview. | Progs. gain at least 3 |
Also keep an eye on
| School board elections in Missouri, with debates centered on equity | ||
| A vast slew of municipal elections in suburban Cook County (around Chicago), profiled here | ||
| 6 city coucil elections in Colorado Springs: See this series on each |