Your Cheat Sheet to the 2026 General Elections
Bolts guides you through more than 650 elections up and down the ballot, and why they matter.
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October 1, 2026
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Congressional races will take center stage on Nov. 3, but they’re just the tip of what to watch. Prosecutors and governors, attorneys general and sheriffs, school boards and mayors, utility commissioners and judges—voters will decide thousands of offices with tremendous local power in these midterms.
Enter our annual cheat sheet to help you track what matters across the country.
On this page, we have identified over 660 elections (and counting) up and down the ballot, and why they matter. So, what ballot measures will affect the issue you care about, from abortion access to public transit? Which county governments are in play? What school boards are seeing tensions over the rights of LGBTQ students? Which legislative chambers could each party flip, and via which districts? What sheriff elections are most likely to affect collaboration with ICE? Explore our guide to find out; we feature at least one non-federal race for all 50 states, plus D.C.
Scroll down to explore what interests you below—or simply search for key terms like your state on your browser: The items will unfurl even when they’re closed.
You can also jump straight to the sections of this guide that break down key state legislatures, the battle for Congress, governors, attorneys general, secretaries of state, state courts, utility commissions, prosecutors, sheriffs, city leaders and mayors, county leaders, school boards, and local judges. We also break down the key ballot measures on abortion, criminal justice and drug policy, election law and redistricting, labor, transit, housing, climate, education, LGBTQ+ rights, taxes, guns, and much more.
Remember, this is not an exhaustive list of every office on the ballot this fall; it is our nationwide selection of key contests to watch. (In California alone, there are thousands of school board elections this fall!) You can likely obtain a sample ballot on the website of your state or local election offices for a full list of everything you’ll be voting on in your backyard.
Be sure to return on and after election night, as we will update with results once they are known. We will also release a printable, PDF version of this guide closer to Election Day, as we have in the past. Finally, we want to acknowledge the invaluable work of Ballotpedia in helping us track ballot measures in particular; be sure to visit their resources as well.
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The 51 trifectas
U.S. Senate
| Democrats are likely to hold 43 seats, and the GOP 41, before accounting for 16 seats that appear vulnerable to a flip. To flip the Senate, Democrats must win 8 of the 16 races. We list a seat as vulnerable if it is rated unsafe by one of three leading analysts (Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections), or else if a media-sponsored poll listed on The New York Times database found it within 10 points. We will update the list as analyses change and new polls are published. |
| Dem-held |
|---|
| Georgia |
| Michigan |
| Minnesota |
| New Hampshire |
| GOP-held seats |
|---|
| Alaska |
| Arkansas |
| Florida |
| Iowa |
| Kansas |
| Maine |
| Montana |
| Nebraska |
| North Carolina |
| Ohio |
| South Carolina |
| Texas |
| The other states with a U.S. Senate race this fall are: Alabama, Colorado, Delaware, Idaho, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming. |
U.S. Senate
| Democrats are likely to hold 43 seats, and the GOP 41 seats, before accounting for 16 seats that appear vulnerable to a flip at this stage. To flip the Senate, Democrats must win 8 of the 16 races. We list a seat as vulnerable if it is rated unsafe by one of three leading analysts (Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections), or else if a media-sponsored poll listed on The New York Times database found it within 10 points. We will update the list as analyses change and new polls are published. |
| Dem-held seats |
|---|
| Georgia: Jon Ossoff’s reelection bid |
| Michigan: Open race to replace Gary Peters |
| Minnesota: Open race to replace Tina Smith |
| New Hampshire: Open race to replace Jeanne Shaheen |
| GOP-held seats |
|---|
| Alaska: Dan Sullivan’s reelection bid |
| Arkansas: Tom Cotton’s reelection bid |
| Florida: Ashley Moody’s reelection bid |
| Iowa: Open race to replace Joni Ernst |
| Kansas: Roger Marshall’s reelection bid |
| Maine: Susan Collins’ reelection bid |
| Montana: Open race to replace Steve Daines |
| Nebraska: Pete Ricketts’ reelection bid |
| North Carolina: Open race to replace Thom Tillis |
| Ohio: Jon Husted’s reelection bid |
| South Carolina: Open race to replace Lindsey Graham |
| Texas: Open race to replace John Cornyn |
| The other states with a U.S. Senate race this fall are: Alabama, Colorado, Delaware, Idaho, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming. |
U.S. House: GOP seats
Seats targeted by redistricting
| CA-01 |
| CA-06 |
| CA-22 |
| CA-41 |
| CA-48 |
| UT-01 |
Other flippable seats
| AK-AL |
| AR-02 |
| AZ-01 |
| AZ-02 |
| AZ-06 |
| CO-03 |
| CO-04 |
| CO-05 |
| CO-08 |
| FL-07 |
| FL-12 |
| FL-13 |
| FL-16 |
| FL-27 |
| IA-01 |
| IA-02 |
| IA-03 |
| KY-06 |
| MI-04 |
| MI-07 |
| MI-10 |
| MN-01 |
| MO-02 |
| MT-01 |
| NC-03 |
| NC-11 |
| NE-02 |
| NJ-07 |
| NV-02 |
| NY-01 |
| NY-17 |
| NY-21 |
| OH-07 |
| OH-10 |
| OH-15 |
| PA-01 |
| PA-07 |
| PA-08 |
| PA-10 |
| SC-01 |
| TX-15 |
| TX-23 |
| VA-01 |
| VA-02 |
| VA-05 |
| WI-01 |
| WI-03 |
| A GOP-held seat is included here if rated unsafe for the GOP by one of: Cook, Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Assuming the incumbent party retains all seats not on this page, Democrats have a starting point of 178 seats and the GOP of 167 seats. A majority is 218 seats. |
U.S. House: Dem seats
Seats targeted by redistricting
| AL-02 |
| FL-09 |
| FL-14 |
| FL-22 |
| FL-25 |
| LA-06 |
| NC-01 |
| OH-01 |
| OH-09 |
| TX-09 |
| TX-28 |
| TX-32 |
| TX-34 |
| TX-35 |
Other flippable seats
| CA-13 |
| CA-21 |
| CA-45 |
| IN-01 |
| ME-02 |
| MI-03 |
| MI-08 |
| MN-02 |
| NC-01 |
| NH-01 |
| NH-02 |
| NJ-09 |
| NM-02 |
| NV-01 |
| NV-03 |
| NV-04 |
| NY-03 |
| NY-04 |
| NY-19 |
| OH-13 |
| OR-05 |
| TN-09 |
| A Dem-held seat is included here if rated unsafe for Dems by one of: Cook, Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Assuming the incumbent party retains all seats not on this page, Democrats have a starting point of 178 seats and the GOP of 167 seats. A majority is 218 seats. |
U.S. House: Intra-party
| Due to its ‘top 2’ election system, California is hosting general elections between members of the same party where the stakes are not just which party holds the seat. |
Intra-Dem
| California’s 7th District CA-07 Doris Matsui has establishment support as she faces Sacramento City Councilor Mai Vang, a progressive who is running with the endorsement of the local DSA chapter. Vang is also making a case for generational change against the 82-year-old incumbent. Vang led Matsui 31 to 29 percent in the June primary. |
| California’s 11th District CA-11 The race to replace former Speaker Nancy Pelosi pits San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan against Scott Wiener, a state senator known for successfully championing high-profile laws that have made it easier to build housing in California, with the idea of lowering costs. Both Democrats have split the endorsements of powerful officials, though Chan tends to have support from the more progressive faction of San Francisco politics; she also has Pelosi’s endorsement. |
| California’s 14th District CA-14 Eric Swalwell’s resignation from Congress triggered a special election to replace him for the rest of 2026 this August, and progressive state Senator Aisha Wahab narrowly won over Melissa Hernandez, a member of the Bay Area Rapid Transit Board of Directors who attacked her from the right. The two Democrats are already facing off again now in the regular election. |
| California’s 34th District CA-34 Incumbent Democrat Jimmy Gomez faces allegations of sexual misconduct, first reported by CNN in early June, as he runs for reelection against Democrat Angela Gonzales-Torres, who is backed by the left-wing Justice Democrats and received 31 percent in June. |
Intra-GOP
| California’s 40th District CA-40 Democrats’ new gerrymander of California threw two GOP incumbents, Ken Calvert and Young Kim, into the same district. They grabbed the first two spots in the June primary, besting five Democrats, and now face each other in the general election. |
Who will run the federal government?
| Result | |
|---|---|
| White House? | GOP |
| Senate? | |
| House? |
Governors
| These governorships are possibly vulnerable to a flip. We list a race as vulnerable if it is rated unsafe by one of three analysts (Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections), or if the incumbent governor’s party lost the presidential race there in 2024. |
| Dem-held |
|---|
| Arizona |
| Kansas |
| Maine |
| Michigan |
| Minnesota |
| New Mexico |
| New York |
| Oregon |
| Pennsylvania |
| Wisconsin |
| GOP-held |
|---|
| Alaska |
| Florida |
| Georgia |
| Iowa |
| Nebraska |
| Nevada |
| New Hampshire |
| Ohio |
| Texas |
| Vermont |
| The other states with governor elections this fall are: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Wyoming. We will update the list as analyses change. |
Governors
| These governorships are possibly vulnerable to a flip. We list a race as vulnerable if it is rated unsafe by one of three analysts (Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections), or if the incumbent governor’s party lost the presidential race there in 2024. |
| Dem-held |
|---|
| Arizona: Katie Hobbs’ reelection bid |
| Kansas: Open race to replace Laura Kelly |
| Maine: Open race to replace Janet Mills |
| Michigan: Open race to replace Gretchen Whitmer |
| Minnesota: Open race to replace Tim Walz |
| New Mexico: Open race to replace Michelle Lujan Grisham |
| New York: Kathy Hochul’s reelection bid |
| Oregon: Tina Kotek’s reelection bid |
| Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro’s reelection bid |
| Wisconsin: Open race to replace Tony Evers |
| GOP-held |
|---|
| Alaska: Open race to replace Mike Dunleavy |
| Florida: Open race to replace Ron DeSantis |
| Georgia: Open race to replace Brian Kemp |
| Iowa: Open race to replace Kim Reynolds |
| Nevada: Jim Pillen’s reelection bid |
| Nevada: Joe Lombardo’s reelection bid |
| New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte’s reelection bid |
| Ohio: Open race to replace Mike DeWine |
| Texas: Greg Abbott’s reelection bid |
| Vermont: Phil Scott’s reelection bid |
| The other states with governor elections this fall are: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Wyoming. We will update the list as analyses change. |
Key legislative chambers
| These are chambers that may flip, or where a supermajority is at stake. |
Dem-held: Will it flip?
| Maine House |
| Maine Senate |
| Michigan Senate |
| Minnesota Senate |
| Pennsylvania House |
GOP-held: Will it flip?
| Arizona House |
| Arizona Senate |
| Georgia House |
| Georgia Senate |
| Michigan House |
| New Hampshire House |
| New Hampshire Senate |
| Pennsylvania Senate |
| Texas House |
| Texas Senate |
| Wisconsin House |
| Wisconsin Senate |
Tied, or bipartisan control: What majority?
| Alaska House |
| Alaska Senate |
| Minnesota House |
| Both chambers in Alaska are held by a coalition of Democrats and moderate Republicans, with most Republicans in the minority. The Minnesota House is tied. |
Dem-held: Will Dems win a supermajority?
| California House |
| California Senate |
| Colorado House |
| Colorado Senate |
| Delaware House |
| Delaware Senate |
| Illinois House |
| Illinois Senate |
| Nevada House |
| Nevada Senate |
| New York Senate |
| Oregon House |
| Oregon Senate |
| Vermont House |
| Vermont Senate |
| Washington House |
GOP-held: Will GOP win a supermajority?
| Kansas House |
| Florida House |
| Florida Senate |
| Iowa House |
| Iowa Senate |
| Nebraska Senate |
| North Carolina House |
| North Carolina Senate |
| Ohio House |
Key legislative districts
| Hundreds of districts may flip this fall. But most will not affect overall control of a legislative chamber. Below is Bolts’ selection of pivotal districts that may affect a chamber’s partisan, or ideological, balance. |
Arizona
| Seven legislative districts Despite their success in statewide elections, Arizona Democrats keep hitting a wall in trying to flip the legislature. This fall, they would need to flip four seats in the state House and three in the state Senate. (Note each legislative district elects one senator and two representatives.) The party is targeting a long list of districts. The obvious races to watch are those in Districts 9 and 23, which voted for Harris in 2024 but have GOP lawmakers. But that wouldn’t be enough for Democrats. They would also need to win seats in at least one district won by Trump. The 2nd, 4th, 13th, 16th, and 17th may be the most competitive. |
Alaska
| House Districts 6, 11, 15, 34, and 37 Both of Alaska’s chambers are currently run by a crosspartisan coalition of Democrats, independents, and moderate Republicans. The Senate is virtually guaranteed to remain in that configuration given the seats that aren’t even on the ballot this year. But in the House, the crosspartisan coalition only controls 21 of 40 seats. Its most vulnerable seat appears to be independent-held HD37. But traditional Republicans are in grave danger in four seats they currently hold, any of which could flip and bolster the current majority coalition: Districts 6, 11, 15, and 34. |
| House District 27 Also watch House District 27: David Eastman, a former far-right lawmaker and Oath Keeper, is mounting a comeback against a fellow Republican. |
California
| Five elections between parties In Senate District 16, Democrat Melissa Hurtado won one of the tightest races anywhere in the country in 2024, prevailing by 13 votes out of nearly 137,000. She is running this year against Republican Guillermo Gonzalez. Inversely, GOP-held seats are vulnerable to a blue flip in Assembly Districts 36, 47, 58, and 74. |
| Three intra-Dem elections But California’s “Top 2” system means that some of the most interesting general elections pit two Democrats against one another. Here, familiar ‘left versus center’ contrasts are doubling as battles between labor and tech, Politico reports. The key tests are in Senate District 24 and Assembly Districts 12 and 68. |
Colorado
| Senate District 30 Colorado Democrats want a supermajority to advance constitutional amendments on party-line votes. In the Senate, where they would need just one flip, their clearest target is District 30. |
| House Districts 16, 19, 50, 51 In the House, Democrats need four seats and they have many districts to target. Key races to watch are Districts 16, 19, and 50, which the GOP narrowly flipped in 2024, plus District 51. |
Connecticut
| Senate District 8 In 2022, Senate District 8 saw a strikingly close race, when a GOP incumbent beat Democrat Paul Honig by just 125 votes. Two years later, Honig won the rematch—but only after yet another excruciatingly tight count left him with a 319-vote lead. Honig now faces Republican Mike Criss, and the result will help determine whether Democrats keep their supermajority in the state Senate. |
| Senate Districts 28 and 36 Also watch Districts 28 and 36, which stand out for the fact that they voted for Harris by very large margins in 2024 and yet are represented by Republicans. |
Delaware
| House Districts 9, 22, and 34 Democrats are looking for a supermajority in the state House, which would allow them to amend the state constitution on party-line votes. Some election reforms like expanding mail voting have been struck down in court for violating the constitution. Democrats need to net just one seat, and their best shots are in the three GOP-held districts carried by Harris over Trump in 2024 (House Districts 9, 22, and 34). |
Florida
| Senate Districts 10, 14, and 38 If Democrats pull off an upset and win Florida’s governorship, would the GOP still have a supermajority in the legislature that could override the governor? Democrats need to gain one seat to break the GOP’s supermajority in the Senate. Their main targets are District 10 and, to a lesser extent as it’s redder, District 38. But the GOP could also still win back the red-leaning District 14, which Democrat Brian Nathan flipped in March in a special election. |
| Eight House districts Democrats are in a bigger hole in the House and would need to flip six seats to gain control. The DLCC has said it’s targeting seven districts (37, 64, 93, 100, 101, 106, and 113). But here, too, the GOP hopes to avenge a special election loss from March, when Republicans lost District 87, which is home to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago. |
Georgia
| Senate watch One stat captures how much the GOP has gerrymandered Georgia: Trump lost the state in 2020, yet the median Senate seat voted for him by a whopping 13 points, according to data on Dave’s Redistricting App. To so much as tie the chamber, Democrats would need to flip multiple seats that voted Trump by double digits. |
| Eleven House districts The House likely holds more promise for Democrats, where they have just enough targets to make a run at a majority if there ends up being a very strong blue wave. Still, they would need to flip ten seats. Districts 48, 53, 99, 105, and 154 are the GOP’s most vulnerable seats, as they voted against Trump; Districts 44, 45, 46, 49, and 151 in the next tier. But Democrats would also have to defend a vulnerable seat as well, the red-leaning District 121, which Eric Gisler won in a big upset last December and is now trying to keep. |
Kentucky
| House District 48 When a GOP lawmaker filed a bill to bar naturalized citizens from holding public office, naturalized citizen Suhas Kulkarni decided to run for a seat in the state House, the Kentucky Lantern reports. He is running for this competitive, GOP-held seat. |
Kansas
| At least five House districts Kansas has had a Democratic governor since 2018, but the GOP has been able to override her vetoes thanks to its legislative supermajorities. This year, only the lower chamber is even in play; Democrats would need to flip five seats to erase the GOP’s supermajority. House Democrats have plenty of targets, including District 41, where Republican groups are withdrawing support for a GOP nominee over unspecified concerns, and Districts 14, 28, 67, and 88, which voted for Harris over Trump in 2024 but are held by a GOP lawmaker. |
Illinois
| Senate District 26 Nabeela Syed was 23 when she was elected to the Illinois House in 2022, the youngest ever state representative in Illinois. She also was the first Muslim candidate ever elected to the Illinois legislature, according to The 19th. Instead of running for reelection, Syed is challenging Republican Senator Darby Hills in the blue-leaning 26th District. Capital News Illinois lays out other seats that may flip in either direction in Illinois, though the results are unlikely to affect the overall balance of power in Springfield. |
Iowa
| Senate Districts 1, 21, and 35 While Iowa Democrats are optimistic they can flip the governorship, could the GOP win supermajorities in the legislature that would give them the votes to override a governor’s veto? The Senate is most interesting, because Republicans lost their supermajority there in 2025 special elections via two upsets in usually red seats—an early sign of the heavy losses the party would suffer all year. Both seats (Districts 1 and 35) are now up again, and Democrats Catelin Drey and Mike Zimmer face a difficult path to reelection. But the GOP faces a tough race as well in District 21, a competitive seat where a GOP senator is retiring. |
| House District 20 In the House, the GOP already has a one-seat supermajority thanks to big gains in 2024; both parties are defending many vulnerable seats and there’s a large universe of over a dozen competitive seats. Watch House District 20, the open race to replace Josh Turek, Democrats’ nominee for the U.S. Senate. |
Indiana
| Six Senate districts Last year, a large group of GOP senators blocked a new gerrymander of Indiana’s congressional maps, which failed in Republican-dominated the chamber on a 31-19 vote. But at Trump’s urging, GOP voters then ousted six of those senators in the May primaries; a seventh retired, and Republican voters nominated a Trump-endorsed candidate to replace him. If they hope to prevent a gerrymander next year, Democrats now need to flip as many seats as they can. Their challenge is that most GOP-held seats are in extremely red territory, including many of those where incumbents lost in May. Democrats’ best target is District 31; the next tier of targets, Districts 1, 11, and 15, is already very red-leaning. They must also defend District 4. |
Michigan
| Majority watch The GOP has a 58-52 edge in the House; Democrats have a 20-18 edge in the Senate. Each party now hopes to control the legislature. State maps were drawn by an independent redistricting commission rather than gerrymandered to shrink competition, so the universe of elections that’ll decide the majorities are very large. In the Senate, Democrats have a clear target to grow its majority: District 30, where Republican Mark Huizenga is seeking reelection against Democrat Carol Glanville. They also have a shot at the GOP-held Districts 9 and 32. Meanwhile, to flip the chamber, the GOP must win at least two Dem-held seats among Districts 2, 4, 12, and 13, as well as District 35, which Democrats just won in a May special election and now must defend again. House hotspots are harder to pin down; 22 races were decided by less than 10 points in 2024, and now there are dozens of seats that could be considered competitive. |
Minnesota
| Majority watch Currently, the House is evenly split and Democrats have a one-seat majority in the Senate, so it would take the smallest of shifts to flip the legislature in either direction. Much like Michigan, there’s a large universe of competitive districts because the maps are not gerrymandered; they were drawn by courts. The last time each chamber was on the ballot, 4 Senate races and 16 House races were decided by less than 5 points. In a statewide analysis this summer, MinnPost identified 11 districts to watch that will decide the majority: Districts 3, 4, 14, 18, 24, 32, 34, 35, 37, 41, 54, and 58. Bolts is also watching races in Districts 2, 11, 26, 33, 36, 48, and 57. |
Missouri
| Supermajority watch Republicans have used their supermajorities to add emergency clauses to legislation, making them take effect much quicker—though they’re so close to the threshold that they occasionally fall short due to GOP defections. Democrats are hoping to end these supermajorities this year; they would need to either flip two seats in the state Senate, or three seats in the state House, to break the GOP supermajority. The landscape is clearest in the Senate, where Democrats’ targets are Districts 8 and 30. |
Nebraska
| Nebraska Republicans have a supermajority in the state’s only legislative chamber, but they have no seat to spare, and even this hasn’t been enough to overcome Democratic filibusters on some of their priorities due to a GOP senator’s opposition to allocating electoral votes through a winner-take-all rule or banning abortion. Democrats hope to gain some breathing room this fall. They would erase the GOP supermajority if they flip one seat. All Dem-held seats appear to be safe. GOP seats appear to be vulnerable in the 4th, 12th, and 18th districts. |
Nevada
| Four House districts and two Senate districts Nevada’s legislature is very likely to stay as it is now, Democratic control that falls short of a supermajority to override the vetoes of the GOP governor, reports The Nevada Independent. Democrats still have a shot at securing a supermajority in the Assembly; they would have to flip one of District 2 and 35 while defending Districts 9 and 37. In the Senate, the GOP is hoping to gain some ground by flipping Districts 8 and 12. |
New Hampshire
| Six Senate districts Republicans have built a large, 16-8 majority in the New Hampshire Senate, in part thanks to a gerrymandered map. Still, Democrats hope to make progress this year. Districts 11 and 18 stand out since the GOP just flipped them in 2024, as does District 9 because the GOP incumbent barely won it two years ago. But to actually flip the chamber, Democrats would also have to defeat GOP incumbents with a record of strong wins in Districts 2, 3, or 12. |
| House majority watch Also keep an eye on Democrats’ attempt to make gains in the GOP-controlled House, which has 400 seats and is susceptible to wild swings (for instance, the GOP gained 47 seats in the fall of 2020)—making it next to impossible to narrow it down to just a handful of key districts to watch. |
New York
| Seven Senate districts New York Democrats lost their supermajority in the Senate in 2024. That threshold is largely symbolic since it mostly serves to override vetoes and the GOP seems unlikely to win the governorship. We’re still monitoring the districts that might affect the size of Democrats’ majority in the chamber, namely GOP-held Districts 1, 7, 17, 39, 43, and 44, and Dem-held Districts 23 and 50. |
North Carolina
| Senate Districts 7, 11, and 34 The GOP has heavily gerrymandered North Carolina, which has enabled them to continually override vetoes of Democratic governors on issues like immigration and election law. Democrats hope to deprive the GOP of its supermajorities this year. In the Senate, where the GOP cannot afford to lose any ground, it has three vulnerable seats to defend (Districts 7, 11, and 34). |
| Seven House districts In the House, the GOP is technically one seat away from a supermajority—but a few rogue Democrats have helped them override vetoes this year. Many lost to progressives in the primaries and won’t be back, though additional gains would give Democrats breathing room. The GOP’s most vulnerable seats are Districts 25, 35, 37, and 105. (The incumbent in the latter is Tricia Cotham, who infamously switched parties in 2023 and helped the GOP ban abortion.) Democrats have vulnerable seats as well; watch Districts 24, 32, and 115. |
Oregon
| House District 22 Oregon Democrats secured supermajorities in 2024, which allows them to move tax measures and some other proposals on party-line votes. The GOP’s single best shot to break these supermajorities is to flip House District 22, which they lost in 2024. Incumbent Lesly Muñoz faces GOP challenger Noemi Legaspi. All other Dem-held districts, in both chambers, are far bluer. (If anything, the GOP is defending more vulnerable seats in Senate Districts 11 and 16 and House Districts 21 and 52.) Note that Democrats lack the higher-threshold supermajority that’d allow them to overcome a GOP walkout and meet quorum all on their own; they’d need to gain several seats for this. |
Pennsylvania
| Senate Districts 6, 16, 24, 36, and 40 Democrats have a shot at controlling the Pennsylvania Senate for the first time since 1993, and with it potentially win control of state government. The difficulty for Democrats is that only half the 50-member chamber is up, and to win a majority they’d need to gain three of the GOP-held seats they’re targeting (out of Districts 6, 16, 24, and 40)—on top of keeping the GOP seat they flipped in a special election last year (District 36). |
| House majority watch Democrats already run the House, but the GOP only has to flip two seats to change that. Here, there is a very large universe of districts both parties are targeting that could shift the chamber in either direction. |
Rhode Island
| Senate District 14, House Districts 5 and 15 Rhode Island’s legislature is massively Democratic and is sure to stay that way. Still, the Rhode Island Current reports on whether the midterms will grow the ranks of independent lawmakers—there’s currently just one. They point to House District 5, featuring DSA-backed Brittany Kubicek; House District 15, featuring star GOP recruit-turned-independent Allan Fung, and Senate District 14, where candidate Brian Coogan is running with the support of a conservative-leaning group against Senate President Valarie Lawson. |
Texas
| Senate District 9 Democrat Taylor Rehmet scored an upset in a January special election when he flipped this red-leaning district, defeating Republican Leigh Wambsganss, an activist who helped lead conservative efforts to take over school boards. Rehmet and Wambsganss now face each other again for a full term. While all GOP-held seats in the Texas Senate are in deeply red territory, GOP officials have signaled concern about some of their senators. And if Texas Democrats make major inroads, how much could they close the gap in the House? They are 14 seats from a majority, a comfortable cushion for the GOP given that Democrats are defending many seats that Trump carried in 2024. As of Sept. 30, the national committee tasked with winning legislative seats for Democrats has identified 12 GOP-held districts that it’s targeting—an ambitious number that’s still short of the magic number the party needs. |
Washington
| Intra-Dem races in House District 11 and Senate District 43 State Representative David Hackney, a Democrat who has sponsored legislation to toughen criminal penalties and tampered police reform with demands for increased police funding, faces a more progressive Democrat, Ashley Fedan. As is typical in Seattle-area politics, the more moderate Hackney is backed by The Seattle Times and Fedan by The Stranger. Senate Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen also faces a challenger to his left, Hannah Sabio-Howell, who was endorsed by Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson. But Pedersen finished with a huge lead in the all-party primary in August. |
| Supermajority watch Another question in Washington is whether Democrats can flip enough GOP seats to reach a supermajority in the state House—which primary results suggest could be possible. But they would also need a supermajority in the state Senate to advance constitutional amendments on a party-line vote, and that seems extremely difficult this year given the seats at play. |
Wisconsin
| Senate Districts 5, 17, 25, and 31 Winning the Wisconsin trifecta for the first time since 2010 is a top priority for Democrats. Gaining the Senate would require them winning three of a core four battlegrounds, The Wisconsin Examiner lays out: GOP-held Districts 5, 17, and 25, and Dem-held District 31. |
| Assembly Districts 21, 51, 53, 61, 88 In the Assembly, Democrats would need to flip 5 seats. Their clearest targets are Districts 21, 51, 53, 61, and 88—all seats the GOP won by less than four points in 2024. An analysis by the University of Marquette identifies a broader universe of seats to pay attention to, including vulnerable Democratic seats. |
Who will run each of the 50 states?
| A party runs a state if it controls its governorship and legislative chambers. As always, whether a party gains such trifectas is one of the key questions this fall. Each state is included for a comprehensive outlook. |
Currently Dem-run (16 states):
| State | Result |
|---|---|
| Califonria | |
| Colorado | |
| Connecticut | |
| Delaware | |
| Illinois | |
| Hawaii | |
| Mass. | |
| Maryland | |
| Maine | |
| New Jersey | |
| New Mexico | |
| New York | |
| Oregon | |
| Rhode Island | |
| Virginia | Dem* |
| Washington |
Currently GOP-run (23 states):
| State | Result |
|---|---|
| Alabama | |
| Arkansas | |
| Florida | |
| Georgia | |
| Idaho | |
| Indiana | |
| Iowa | |
| Louisiana | GOP* |
| Mississippi | GOP* |
| Missouri | |
| Montana | |
| Nebraska | |
| New Hampshire | |
| North Dakota | |
| Oklahoma | |
| Ohio | |
| South Carolina | |
| South Dakota | |
| Tennessee | |
| Texas | |
| Utah | |
| West Virginia | |
| Wyoming |
Currently split government (11 states)
| State | Result |
|---|---|
| Alaska | |
| Arizona | |
| Kansas | |
| Kentucky | Split* |
| Michigan | |
| Minnesota | |
| North Carolina | |
| Nevada | |
| Pennsylvania | |
| Vermont | |
| Wisconsin |
Referendums
Abortion rights
| Idaho Prop 1 This initiative would reverse Idaho’s abortion ban, which criminalizes nearly all abortions with only very narrow exceptions, and establish some reproductive rights. |
| Missouri Amendment 3 After Missourians in 2024 passed an initiative protecting abortion rights, GOP lawmakers advanced Amendment 3 to overturn that result and restore a near total abortion ban. The measure also includes a ban on gender-affirming care for minors, even though lawmakers already banned such care for minors in 2023—a repeat of the GOP’s strategy in 2024 to tie the abortion initiative to gender transition care for minors. |
| Nevada Question 6 This measure would codify a right to abortion in the state constitution. (Nevadans already approved this language in 2024 but an amendment must pass in two consecutive cycles.) |
| Virginia Question 1 This measure would enshrine a right to access abortion in the state constitution. |
Election law (redistricting, voting rights, and more)
Ballot access
| Virginia Question 3 This measure would restore Virginians’ voting rights when they exit prison, Bolts reports; the constitution currently provides for lifetime disenfranchisement for any felony. |
| Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Kansas, and West Virginia These five states are all voting on amending their constitutions to specify that only citizens can vote. No locality in any of these states allows non-citizen voting in their local elections; the measures build on baseless GOP rhetoric about rampant non-citizen voting. (Note that Arizona’s measure, Prop 144, contains many other provisions; see below.) |
| Arizona Prop 144 This measure would codify into the Arizona constitution that voters must show photo ID when voting; state law already requires this. Arizona is a rare state to have rejected a photo ID measure in the recent past, as Bolts reported in 2022. |
| California Prop 39 This constitutional amendment, championed by conservatives, would require Californians to provide a photo ID when voting; the state currently does not have such a requirement. |
| Culver City, California This measure would lower the voting age for local elections to 16, a repeat of a 2024 measure that narrowly lost. |
| Colorado Amendment 84 The measure, placed on the ballot by a conservative group, would create new requirements for voters to provide an identification number if they want to vote by mail. |
| Massachusetts Question 4 This measure would authorize same-day voter registration, meaning that residents could register to vote and immediately cast a ballot on Election Day. (Massachusetts currently allows same-day registration for a portion of early voting.) |
| Nevada Question 7 This measure would codify into the state constitution that Nevadans must provide a photo ID to vote; the reform would be more restrictive than current state law, as Ballotpedia lays out. |
| North Carolina A measure, advanced by the GOP legislature, would enshrine into the state constitution that voters must share a photo ID even when they vote by mail. State law already requires this. |
| Ohio Issue 3 This measure would codify into the state constitution that voters must show a photo ID to vote; this is already in state law. |
Direct democracy
| North Dakota, Measure 1 South Dakota, Amendment L Both of the Dakotas are voting on similar measures that would raise the bar on direct democracy by requiring that a supermajority of voters approve constitutional amendments. Learn more in Bolts. |
| San Francisco, California Prop D San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie has championed a measure to make it harder for citizen initiatives to make the ballot by quadrupling the number of signatures they need to qualify. |
| Colorado Amendment 85 This measure, placed on the ballot by a conservative group, would set a constitutional requirement that ballot initiatives be written at an eighth-grade reading level; critics say the standard is too ambiguous and would invite more costly legal battles over ballot language. |
| Missouri Amendment 6 This measure would entrench in the state constitution a right to direct democracy and add new protections for the initiative process. Bolts reports on the proposal, which comes months after Missourians refused to raise the threshold for passing ballot measures. |
| Montana CI-133 This measure would entrench in the state constitution a right to direct democracy and add new protections for the initiative process. Bolts reports on the stakes of this proposal. |
| Pierce County, Washington Amendment 55 Proposed by a committee tasked with reviewing the county’s charter, this measure would make it easier to qualify local initiatives by extending the window of time organizers have to collect signatures by 60 days. |
| See also California and Utah are voting on measures that would require a supermajority specifically for measures that deal with taxation (see the section on taxation) and Idaho is voting on a measure that would restrict direct democracy when it comes to legalizing certain drugs specifically (see the section on drug policy). |
Design of elections
| Alaska Measure 2 Alaskans are voting, again, on repealing their election system that combines an all-party primary and ranked-choice voting. A similar measure failed two years ago; Bolts reported then that Native community leaders had mobilized to protect the current election system. |
| California Prop 4 This measure would lift a 1988 ban on the public financing of election campaigns. (Note that this would not actually enact a public financing system, only authorize state and local governments to create them.) |
| California Prop 5 Currently, a California recall asks voters to simultaneously decide whether they want an incumbent ousted and who should replace them; the system has proven hard to navigate for incumbent parties, famously so with Governor Gray Davis’ recall in 2003. Instead, if Prop 5 passes, a successful recall would leave the office vacant until it’s filled by a subsequent election. |
| Whittier, California Measure EV Voters in this Los Angeles suburb are deciding whether to reschedule local elections to coincide with higher-turnout contests. This was a promise of the Democratic slate that swept local elections here this spring, as Bolts reported. |
| Irvine, California and Longmont, Colorado and Honolulu, Hawaii These three localities are voting on whether to adopt ranked-choice voting in local elections. |
| Georgia All judicial candidates in Georgia run in nonpartisan elections—except for probate judges. A measure on the statewide ballot would end that exception. |
| Massachusetts Question 3 This measure would replace the conventional system of partisan primaries that most states use with a ‘top-two’ system, similar to California’s. |
| Montana CI-132 This measure would enshrine into Montana’s constitution that judicial contests must be nonpartisan. This would counter efforts by the GOP, which wants to gain ground on the supreme court, to make them partisan. |
| Montana I-194 This measure seeks to find a way around the U.S. Supreme Court’s Citizens United ruling that unleashed corporate spending, and would bar corporations from spending money on election campaigns. (While the legal idea behind the proposal has been dubbed the ‘Montana plan’ because it was devised there, Hawaii enacted a version of it this spring.) |
| New Mexico This measure would repeal the state’s current requirement that school board elections must be scheduled at a different time than partisan races. The proposal comes as many states and cities are moving their local elections to coincide with higher-turnout contests. |
| Columbus, Ohio Two competing measures are looking to overhaul the structure of Columbus’ local government: a citizen initiative that would switch the entire city council to at-large seats; and a separate measure advanced by the city council that would keep district-based seats but add four at-large seats. The Columbus Dispatch explains the stakes. |
| Deschutes County, Oregon This county, home to Bend, is deliberating a measure that would replace its at-large election system with district-based representation. |
| Austin, Texas Prop G This measure would require that popular initiatives be placed on the ballot in November of an even-numbered year, which would ensure higher turnout in deciding them. |
Redistricting
| San Mateo County, California Measure U This measure would create an independent redistricting commission, taking the task away from the board of supervisors. |
| Colorado Amendment 86 Conservatives qualified this measure in an effort to block a possible effort by state Democrats to redistrict the state before the next decennial census. |
| Maryland Question 3 Maryland Democrats have advanced this amendment to loosen the state’s constitutional requirements around redistricting, with an eye to adopting a new gerrymander next year. |
| Missouri Prop A This veto referendum would block a GOP gerrymander adopted in 2025. Republicans redrew the Kansas City region to break apart Kansas City and flip a safely blue congressional seat into a safely red one. The secretary of state tried to block the measure from reaching the ballot but the state supreme court rebuffed him in September. |
Law enforcement (drugs, police, prisons, and more)
Criminal justice
| Colorado Proposition 133 This measure would require a sentence of life without parole for anyone convicted of child sex trafficking. |
| Johnson County (Iowa City), Iowa This measure would authorize bonds to finance the construction of a new sheriff’s office and county jail. |
| Kentucky This measure would limit the powers of a governor to issue commutations or pardons in the final months of his term, a reaction to controversial decisions made by former Governor Matt Bevin. But criminal justice reform advocates often push for clemency at the end of a governor’s term. |
| Indiana, and Louisiana and Tennessee These states are all considering constitutional amendments to prohibit bail in certain circumstances depending on the preponderance of proof or the gravity of the offense. |
| Oklahoma County, Oklahoma This measure would increase the county’s sales tax for the next 25 years to fund a new jail. |
| Tennessee Amendment 3 Dubbed Marsy’s Law, this measure would enshrine a set of victims’ rights in Tennessee’s constitution. Many states have passed this reform over the last decade, against criticism from civil rights advocates that the package risks undermining the rights of defendants. |
Policing
| Arizona Prop 319 This measure would ban cities from setting up new traffic camera systems that use photo enforcement. Cities that already have such systems would have to obtain voter approval every ten years. |
| York, Maine Voters in this small town are considering whether to ban automated license plate readers, including Flock cameras, amid growing nationwide concerns about the technology. |
| Missouri Missourians will vote on a measure that would codify into the state constitution that sheriffs must be elected, rather than appointed. But the measure carves out exceptions for several counties, including the only county that currently has an appointed sheriff—St. Louis County. |
| Dallas, Texas Prop A Many jurisdictions are voting on bond or tax measures that would dedicate money to policing and law enforcement agencies. Dallas’ proposal stands out for its size—$400 million in bonds to fund law enforcement, including training facilities and equipment. |
| Pierce County, Washington Amendment 53 This measure would end sheriff elections in Washington’s second-largest county; it would also cut short the term of the sitting, right-wing sheriff. Learn more in Bolts. |
Immigration enforcement
| Colorado Amendment 81 Sponsored by a conservative group, this proposal would require local authorities in Colorado to collaborate with ICE. (Colorado has adopted some restrictions on local cooperation, though not as much as in other Democratic-governed states.) |
| Honolulu, Hawaii Voters in Honolulu are considering a measure to restrict the Honolulu police from assisting with federal immigration enforcement; it would build on state legislation that banned some forms of local cooperation with ICE earlier this year. |
Drug policy
| Arizona Prop 317 This measure would label drug cartels as terrorist organizations and instruct the Arizona Department of Homeland Security to do everything it can to fight them. Critics worry the vagueness of the measure could unduly empower future governors to further militarize the border. |
| Colorado Prop 132 This measure, supported by GOP politicians like DA George Brauchler known for their punitive politics, would significantly ramp up charging and sentencing for offenses tied to fentanyl and make any charge for fentanyl possession a felony. |
| Idaho HJR 4 The legislature advanced this constitutional amendment that would say that future citizen-initiated measures cannot legalize marijuana and other narcotics. |
| Massachusetts Question 8 This citizen-initiated measure would repeal the legalization of marijuana, making the substance illegal again in the Bay State. |
| Houston, Texas Voters are deciding whether to instruct the police department to deprioritize the enforcement of marijuana offenses. Houston Public Media reported in September that misdemeanor marijuana arrests have surged under Mayor John Whitmire. |
Housing
| California Prop 1 and Prop 37 Californians are voting on multiple measures that touch on the housing crisis. Prop 1 would authorize more than $11 billion in bonds to support affordable housing. Prop 37 would authorize up to $25 billion in bonds to set up a program to offer fixed-rate mortgages to middle-class borrowers. |
| Redwood City and San Pablo, California Two Bay Area cities are deciding separate but similar ballot measures to impose rent control and make it harder for landlords to evict tenants. |
| San Francisco, California Prop C and Prop I San Francisco is voting on several housing-related measures. Proposition C is part of a bargain orchestrated by San Francisco power brokers; it would expand the Housing Trust Fund, which is used to finance affordable housing projects, to over $3 billion over the next three decades. Proposition I, which is being championed by progressives and DSA activists, would require that the city dedicate the revenue it gets from taxing high-end real estate deals to subsidized housing. |
| Oakland, California Banks that foreclose on a home currently do not have to pay a real estate tax in Oakland. This measure would change that for big banks, which proponents say could raise revenue and also disincentivize lenders from foreclosing. |
| Berkeley, California This measure would strengthen the rights of tenants, including by further capping rent increases, Berkeleyside explains. |
| Massachusetts Question 7 This measure would force localities to accept the construction of single-family housing on most lots. |
| Charlotte, North Carolina North Carolina’s largest city is deciding whether to authorize $125 million of bonds to fund affordable housing; WFAE says this is the city’s largest housing bond measure ever. |
Transportation
| Bay Area, California Regional Transit Measure Five counties in the Bay Area (Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara) are voting on setting up a sales tax dedicated to funding the region’s various public transit systems over the next 14 years. One of the biggest local measures on the ballot this year, it’s expected to raise roughly $1 billion annually and salvage numerous transit systems like BART from what could otherwise be huge service cuts, if not full shutdowns. |
| San Francisco, California Measure H This ballot measure would raise revenue through a parcel tax to fund the operations of San Francisco’s Muni public transit system. (This is separate from the regional measure San Franciscans will also vote on.) |
| San Francisco, California Measure G San Francisco is voting, again, on whether there should be cars on the Upper Great Highway. The city transformed it into a recreational space last year following a 2024 ballot measure that closed off a 2-mile stretch of the coastal highway to cars and opened it to pedestrians and bicyclists. |
| Fresno, California Measure S This measure would renew a sales tax dedicated to transportation for the next 25 years, with some money meant to bolster bike lanes and pedestrian infrastructure, KVPR explains. |
| Riverside County, California Measure A This measure would renew the sales tax dedicated to funding transportation in Riverside County, the nation’s 10th most populous county. The package would fund road and highway repairs as well as some public transit. |
| Lawrence, Kansas The measure would increase the sales tax dedicated to public transit in the city. |
| Charlotte, North Carolina Voters in North Carolina’s largest city will decide on a bond measure that would authorize $280 million of funding for transportation. |
| Stark County, Ohio The transit authority that serves the region of Stark County, home to Canton, is seeking to extend the sales tax that supports its public transit operations. While voters rejected increasing the sales tax in May, this new proposal would only renew it at its current rate. |
| Charleston and Greenville, South Carolina This Charleston measure to renew a local sales tax dedicated to transportation would generate billions in revenue for both road projects and public transit. Elsewhere in South Carolina, and at a smaller scale, a measure would authorize a sales tax for road improvements in Greenville. |
| Pierce County, Washington Proposition 1 This measure would increase a local sales tax dedicated to funding public transit in order to expand bus and light rail services. |
| Seattle, Washington Proposition 1 This measure would increase the sales tax dedicated to Seattle public transit to support buses. |
Labor
| Alameda County, California The East Bay county, home to Oakland, is voting on raising the minimum wage to $30. |
| Maryland Question 1 This measure would require Maryland to budget the necessary funds to fulfill the state’s obligations as part of collective bargaining agreements. |
| Vermont Prop 3 This measure would enshrine into the state constitution a right for workers to organize into unions. |
LGBTQ+ rights
| Arizona Prop 318 This measure would bar schools, athletic associations, and youth recreational groups from allowing people to use a bathroom or locker room that differs from the sex they were assigned at birth. It was placed on the ballot by GOP lawmakers. |
| Colorado Prop 134 and Prop 135 Conservative group Protect Kids Colorado has placed two measures on the ballot that touch on the rights of trans people. Prop 134 would bar trans kids from school sports; Prop 135 would bar gender-affirming procedures on minors. |
| Nebraska This measure would ban trans girls from participating in girls’ or women’s sports teams; it would also require schools to design teams “based on the biological sex.” The state supreme court is still considering whether to allow the measure to go forward. |
| Virginia Question 2 Virginia’s constitution still includes language that bans same-sex marriage. This measure would repeal it. |
| Washington Two measures championed by a conservative megadonor target the rights of trans students, directly and indirectly. The first would require that parents be notified when students receive medical services or mental health counseling in schools; while the measure is not specific to trans rights, supporters are framing it as a matter of not letting minors discuss transitioning without the awareness of their parents. The second measure would ban trans girls from girls’ or women’s sports teams and require verification of a student’s biological sex at birth from a health care provider before participating. |
| See also A non-discrimination measure in Vermont (see ‘other topics,’ below) touches on matters beyond LGBTQ+ rights but also includes sexual orientation and gender identity among protected categories. |
Climate and energy
| California Prop 45 Championed by the California Chamber of Commerce, this measure would speed up the process for environmental review with the goal of streamlining developments; critics worry it would end up cutting corners on oversight. |
| Los Angeles, California Amendment PRK Angelenos are voting on whether to increase the minimum budget of the city’s parks department by 50 percent, though the measure does not specify a funding source. |
| Colorado Amendment 82 Championed by a conservative group, this measure would enshrine a “right to natural gas” into Colorado’s constitution, which opponents say could undermine state regulations against polluters. |
| Massachusetts Question 6 This measure would set up a state fund to bolster environmental conservation efforts. |
| Ann Arbor, Michigan Voters will consider whether Ann Arbor should set up a municipal electric utility that would be owned by the local government, rather than continue being served by a private utility. |
| Palm Beach County, Florida and Austin, Texas (Prop A) and Fairfax County, Virginia Many jurisdictions are voting on bond measures of various sizes that would unlock money for public parks. These are often small. Some measures that stick out by virtue of their size include Austin ($260 million), Fairfax County ($180 million), and Palm Beach County ($280 million). |
Education
| Alabama The Alabama legislature has advanced two constitutional amendments that would affect public schools: one would require that schools conduct the pledge of allegiance every day and allow for student-led prayers, and the other would require a weekly performance or broadcast of “The Star-Spangled Banner” in schools. |
| North Dakota Measure 2 This popular initiative would require public schools in North Dakota to provide free breakfast and lunch to students. (Note that the measure only needs 50 percent to pass—a threshold that Republicans are looking to raise for future initiatives.) |
| San Antonio, Texas The city is asking residents to approve the renewal of a sales tax that funds the city’s early childhood education program. |
| School districts As happens every cycle, many school and college districts all around the country will vote on financing their school systems via bonds. Bolts cannot possibly list them all here, but three stand out because their size is well over $1 billion. These are the Cypress-Fairbanks school district, in the Houston region; the school district of Dearborn; and the Los Rios Community College District in the Sacramento region. |
| See also Some measures listed under the sections on LGBTQ+ rights and taxation would have ramifications for education and schools. |
Taxation
| Arizona Prop 141 and Prop 316 Arizona’s GOP-legislature has advanced two measures intended to limit taxes. One would cap future taxes on groceries at 2 percent. The other would ban local or state governments from creating a mileage-based tax on car drivers; the sponsor of the latter measure is the chair of the far-right Arizona Freedom Caucus who says it would promote a “right to travel.” |
| Tempe, Arizona Prop 424 This measure would create a new sales tax of 0.5 percent; revenue is meant to be distributed to various services including police, public transit, and schools. |
| California Prop 40 This measure, commonly referred to as the billionaire’s tax proposal, would impose a one-time tax of 5 percent on individuals whose net worth exceeds $1 billion. It was put on the ballot by the SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West, and the state Democratic Party endorsed it over the opposition of Governor Gavin Newsom. Billionaires are spending big to defeat it. |
| California Prop 41 and Prop 42 Two measures would make it harder for California to pass new taxes. Prop 41 would require that the state auditor review new taxes; Prop 42 would ban taxes on the ownership of personal assets. Either measure would nullify Prop 40 (that’s the billionaire’s tax, see above) if they receive more ‘yes’ votes. |
| California Prop 2 Backed by Democrats and opposed by Republicans, Prop 2 would give the state more flexibility to save surplus revenue in its reserves rather than refunding it to taxpayers. |
| California Prop 3 Californians approved higher taxes on high earners in 2012, and then renewed them in 2016 with a large majority. This latest measure, sponsored by labor groups, would make those taxes permanent. |
| California Prop 43 This measure would make it harder for localities to create special taxes (e.g. Los Angeles’ mansion tax) by requiring that such taxes be approved by two-thirds of voters. It was put on the ballot by the Democratic-run legislature as part of a deal with conservative groups that were working to place a far more restrictive measure on the ballot. The Democratic lawmaker who sponsored it is now campaigning against it. |
| Berkeley, California The city is voting on several tax measures to increase revenue; one would increase the sales tax by 0.5 percent and the other would double its first-in-the-nation tax on sodas. |
| Colorado Amendment 87 and Prop 136 Two conflicting measures on the income tax are on Colorado’s ballot. Progressives advanced Amendment 87, which would increase the tax rate on people earning over $500,000 or the top 3 percent of earners in the state. Conservatives advanced Prop 136 to cap the income tax at the current highest rate. If both measures pass, only the measure with the most votes will be approved. |
| Colorado Prop NN and Prop 137 These two measures would both relax the requirements of Colorado’s Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights (TABOR), a 1992 measure requiring that revenue raised above a certain threshold be returned to taxpayers. Prop NN would raise that threshold, allowing the state to retain more money, for the purpose of spending it on public education. Prop 137 would exempt taxes from sporting goods sales from that calculation and redirect the resulting revenue to environmental conservation efforts. |
| Florida Two amendments The state is voting on two measures that would limit taxes. One would increase the homestead tax exemption; the other would exempt some property from property taxes. |
| Iowa Amendment 1 This conservative measure would make it much harder for the legislature to increase Iowa’s individual or corporate income tax in the future by requiring a two-thirds majority in both legislative chambers. |
| Missouri Amendment 7 This measure, put on the ballot by the GOP legislature, would create a new permanent fund with the goal of generating enough revenue over time to replace all taxes in the state. |
| North Carolina Two amendments North Carolinians will decide two measures that are meant to limit taxes. The first would cap the state’s income tax to 3.5 percent; the second would instruct state lawmakers to pass new limits on how much local governments can raise via property taxes. |
| Oklahoma Question 847 This measure would change how property taxes are assessed in a way that would slow down their growth and tighten local government budgets in the future. |
| Tennessee Amendment 2 This measure would create a constitutional ban on a state property tax; the Tennessee Lookout notes there’s been no such tax in over 75 years. |
| Utah This measure would impose a higher threshold of 60 percent on popular initiatives that create new taxes. |
| Virginia Dozens of jurisdictions in Virginia will be voting on a one percent sales tax to fund projects tied to schools or transportation. The elections are responding to a new state law that allows localities to seek the authority to impose this tax. |
| Washington This measure would repeal the millionaire’s tax that is set to go into effect in 2029, and which would tax income above one million dollars at a 9.9 percent rate. |
| Wyoming Initiative 1 This measure would reduce property taxes by creating a large exemption, part of a broader effort by ultraconservatives in Wyoming to eliminate all property taxes on homes. |
| See also If a tax measure on the ballot this fall is dedicated to a specific category such as housing, education, or transit, you can find it in those sections. |
Governance
| Oakland, California This measure, championed by Mayor Barbara Lee, would switch the structure of Oakland’s city government to a conventional “strong mayor” model, Oaklandside explains. |
| San Francisco, California Measure E and Measure F Mayor David Lurie is championing these proposals to centralize and strengthen the powers of the San Francisco mayor and city administrator over city contracts and department leadership. |
| Honolulu, Hawaii This local measure would allow permanent residents who are not U.S. citizens to serve on public commissions and boards. |
| Massachusetts Question 1 In a state with famously opaque public records, this measure would subject the governor’s office and the state legislature to open records law. WBUR reports that the legislature has been slow-walking the implementation of a similar reform voters approved in 2024. |
| Bozeman, Montana Residents of Bozeman decided in 2024 to set up a panel to review the structure of city government, as Bolts reported at the time. This summer, the panel released recommendations meant to improve representation, and it’s asking voters to decide matters this fall like whether to expand the size of the city council, provide at-large representation, and strengthen the role of neighborhood councils. |
| New Mexico This measure, placed on the ballot by lawmakers, would eliminate the governor’s so-called pocket veto. That would mean that a governor would have to actually issue a veto (and provide an explanation) to block a bill passed by the legislature. |
| Nebraska This measure would loosen the state’s term limits and would allow state lawmakers to serve three four-year terms, up from two. |
| Oklahoma Question 845 This measure would change the structure of the state’s judicial nominating commission, the body that forwards applicants to the governor for filling judicial vacancies. It would give the GOP-run legislature more control over who sits on the body—part of conservative efforts nationwide to move supreme courts to the right. |
| Portland, Oregon Measure 26-267 This measure would set up a participatory budgeting process for residents to decide how to allocate 2 percent of the city budget. |
| Wisconsin Wisconsin governors have unusually strong ‘partial veto’ powers: Once a bill reaches their desk, they can modify the text in ways that significantly alter the meaning. GOP lawmakers have asked voters to limit this power. |
Guns
| Arkansas Issue 2 This measure would amend the state constitution to enshrine a right to “keep and bear arms.” |
| Idaho Lawmakers are asking voters to choose their state’s official gun amid a list of options; Idaho will be the 11th state to adopt a state gun. |
| Massachusetts Question 9 After the state adopted new gun control rules in 2024, gun advocates qualified this measure for the ballot that would repeal those regulations. |
Other topics (data centers, public banks, animal rights, Medicaid, and more)
| Arizona, Prop 142 and Wisconsin Arizona and Wisconsin are each voting on similar measures, in both cases advanced by GOP lawmakers, that would ban public institutions from implementing DEI policies and ban the consideration of race and ethnicity when deciding matters like employment or college admission. (Arizona’s measure would expand a 2010 ban on affirmative action.) |
| California Prop 38 If this measure passes, the state would borrow $8.4 billion to fund immunology research. CalMatters reports that the measure is drafted in such a way that the state would be virtually required to give a large chunk of the money to a research center that is co-founded by the chief backer of Prop 38. |
| Alhambra, California and Edgewater, Florida and Hubbard, Oregon, and Sunbury, Ohio As backlash spreads against data centers, Ballotpedia is tracking local measures that are affecting their construction. They’ve identified proposals in each of these five cities to ban the construction of new data centers. (Other jurisdictions are deciding measures linked to data centers as well, though those proposals are less definitive.) Also watch a measure in Nevada that would rezone a region known as the Eldorado Valley Transfer Area to allow the construction of data centers within it. |
| Berkeley, California and San Francisco Measure Z and Prop B In the Bay Area, two separate measures are asking voters whether they want to set the groundwork for the cities of Berkeley and San Francisco to create a public bank, the idea being that such institutions could provide affordable loans for community needs. |
| Denver, Colorado Denver is voting on a measure that would ban the sale of foie gras and the force-feeding of birds. It is one of two cities with such a measure, alongside D.C. (see below). |
| Colorado Amendment 83 This measure would enshrine in the Colorado constitution that people have a fundamental right to fish and hunt. |
| Idaho HJR 6 This measure would declare that English is Idaho’s official language. |
| Michigan Proposal 1 Michiganders will decide whether they want their state to convene a constitutional convention that would review the state constitution; the state must hold such a referendum every 16 years, and The Downballot breaks down the campaign’s unusual dynamics. |
| New York City, New York Measure 3 and Measure 4 These measures would reduce administrative steps for street improvement projects like bike lanes and for the approval of building construction projects. |
| South Dakota Amendment I This measure, advanced by GOP lawmakers, would repeal the Medicaid expansion approved by voters in 2022 if the federal government’s reimbursement rates ever dip below 90 percent. |
| Vermont Prop 4 This measure would add into the state constitution a ban on discriminating on the basis of race, sexual orientation, gender identity, disability, and more. |
| Washington, D.C. Initiative 86 Washington, D.C., is voting on a ballot initiative that would ban the force-feeding of birds and the sale of foie gras. It is one of two cities deciding this issue, alongside Denver (see above). |
| Pierce County, Washington Amendment 57 This measure would expand the ban on discrimination set in the county’s charter amendment, adding national origin, sexual orientation, gender identity, or pregnancy, and other attributes to the list of attributes that are already protected (such as race and sex). |
| Wisconsin Republican lawmakers advanced a measure to ban the state from closing churches even in a time of emergency, a reaction to restrictions on gatherings during the COVID-19 pandemic. |
State Offices
Supreme courts
| State courts are pivotal across all issues, from redistricting to criminal law. Read our state-by-state guide to all supreme court elections in 2026, or scroll this list of the most noteworthy. |
| Alabama Democrat AshLeigh Dunham says she was motivated to run when she saw this court’s 2024 ruling that held that frozen embryos are children, which endangered IVF treatments. She faces GOP Justice Greg Shaw, who joined that ruling. Learn more. |
| Arizona Justice John Lopez IV, the GOP-appointed judge who wrote the supreme court ruling in 2024 banning nearly all abortions in the state, is up for retention. Learn more |
| Florida Chief Justice Carlos Muñiz, a conservative who voted to reverse precedents by upholding Florida’s six-week abortion ban and allowing nonunanimous juries to sentence someone to death, is up for retention. Learn more. |
| Kansas Conservatives failed this summer to upend the structure of this state supreme court and require direct elections which, they thought, might push the court to the right. Still, they have another shot to affect the court’s composition this fall; two justices chosen by Democratic governors are up for retention. Learn more. |
| Michigan (two seats) Democratic Justices Megan Cavanagh and Noah Hood face GOP challengers Michael Warren and Casandra Morse-Bills. Democrats’ majority on the court is safe even if they lose both seats. Learn more. |
| Montana This court kept its liberal lean in 2024 but conservatives have another opportunity for gains. Dan Wilson is running with conservative support against Amy Eddy, a more liberal candidate. Learn more. |
| North Carolina Democratic Justice Anita Earls, a former voting rights lawyer, is running for reelection against Sarah Stevens, who championed many state laws that have restricted ballot access while in the legislature. Learn more. |
| Ohio Ohio Democrats are down to just one seat on this court. Democrat Jennifer Brunner and Republican Dan Hawkins are running for reelection, so the GOP could build an all-red court or Democrats could reverse the tide. Learn more. |
| Utah Angry at their state supreme court paving the way for the demise of the GOP’s gerrymander, Utah Republicans have expanded the court and pressured Justice Diana Hagen to resign. Justice Jill Pohlman, who has also drawn GOP ire, is up for retention this year. Learn more. |
| Texas Republicans are defending four seats on the state supreme court and three on the court of criminal appeals, Texas’ two high courts. They’re the favored party in each race, in a state that has voted GOP in all statewide races since 1994; but Democrats are hoping that they can break that streak in the Senate race this year and that success can trickle downballot. Learn more. |
| Washington The majority of this supreme court is on the ballot at once this year—the only state where this is the case. In four of the five races, the general election features a candidate backed by Democrats and another backed by the GOP; the fifth features two candidates with Democratic backing. Learn more. |
Other state courts
| Many states are holding elections for their intermediate appellate courts. These don’t have the ultimate power of a state supreme court, but they too shape legal battles. Below, learn about three states with noteworthy battles. |
Kentucky
| Kentucky Court of Appeals District 5 Governor Andy Beshear, a Democrat, appointed Will Moynahan to this court last year and he is now helping him win a full term. Moynahan faces Lucy VanMeter, a lower-court judge. The race is nonpartisan but VanMeter has received donations from several GOP state lawmakers or staffers; she is endorsed by Kentucky’s Fraternal Order of Police, a police union that endorsed Beshear’s GOP opponent in 2023. |
Mississippi
| Mississippi Court of Appeals District 1 This is the only election this fall that’ll affect Mississippi’s government. That’s in large part because Mississippi holds most of its state elections in odd-numbered years. Also, it was expected to hold special elections for its supreme court but those were effectively canceled when the U.S. Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act in April and erased a key voting rights victory for Black voters. Plus, four of the five elections for the Court of Appeals drew just one candidate. That left District 1. Judge John Weddle, an appointee of Republican Governor Tate Reeves, faces Derek Hopson, a personal injury lawyer who has the support of the Southern Poverty Legal Center Action Fund, a civil rights group. |
North Carolina
| North Carolina Court of Appeals Three statewide elections Republicans dominate North Carolina’s Court of Appeals, with 12 of 15 of its judges, which helps them set up conservative rulings for the state supreme court to review. This year, all three of Democrats’ seats are up—and none of the GOP’s. That leaves Democrats in the precarious position of risking a wipeout. All elections are statewide. Incumbents John S. Arrowood and Toby Hampson are running for reelection; the third seat features an open race between two lower-court judges. |
Secretaries of state
| Arizona Democratic incumbent Adrian Fontes faces Alexander Kolodin, an ultraconservative state lawmaker who tried to overturn Biden’s win in 2020 and has sponsored bills to restrict voting. |
| Colorado Amanda Gonzalez, a former voting rights advocate who now runs elections in Jefferson County, has championed many voting expansions. The Democrat is now running to lead Colorado elections against Republican James Wiley, who used to head the state’s Libertarian Party. |
| Georgia Trump famously called Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger after he lost the 2020 election to ask him to “find” enough votes to overturn his defeat; Raffensperger rebuffed him. Six years later, he cannot run for reelection and voters will decide Georgia’s next elections chief between Democrat Penny Brown Reynolds and Republican Tim Fleming. |
| Indiana Greg Ballard, Indianapolis’ former GOP mayor, is now running as an independent—an unusual third-party bid in this red state that complicates the contest between Republican Max Engling and Democrat Beau Bayh, the son of the longtime senator. Engling ousted the sitting incumbent at a party convention earlier this year. |
| Kansas In the 2010s, this office came to embody what a secretary of state intent on restricting voter access in the name of fighting voter fraud can do. Now, in the open race to take over the office, Republican state Representative Pat Proctor faces Democrat Jennifer Day, a former state representative herself. The two candidates disagree on the GOP’s 2025 state law that repealed the grace period for mail ballots. |
| Nebraska Businessman Scott Petersen ousted the incumbent Republican in the May primary by baselessly suggesting that elections are at risk of being stolen. He now faces Democrat Sarah Slattery as well as Bob Krist, a former state senator who is running through the new America First Party and says election administration should be nonpartisan. |
| Nevada Jim Marchant, a leading figure in the nationwide slate of election deniers, already ran for this office in 2022, losing to Democratic incumbent Cisco Aguilar. He is challenging Aguilar again and keeping up his baseless claims that state elections are fraudulent. |
| New Mexico This is an open race to oversee elections in a state that has expanded ballot access in recent years. Democratic nominee Amanda López Askin, county clerk of Doña Ana County, faces Republican Ramona Goolsby, who wants to roll back some voter amenities. |
| Ohio The outgoing GOP secretary of state has amplified doubts about election results and helped advance gerrymanders for his party. He cannot run for reelection, so Republican Robert Sprague, currently Ohio’s treasurer, faces Democratic lawmaker Allison Russo. |
| South Dakota GOP incumbent Monae Johnson was ousted in a party convention by archconservative challenger Heather Baxer, and now supports Democrat Terrance Davis to succeed her. |
| Wisconsin The powers of the Wisconsin secretary are limited and do not include any election administration duties, though some Republicans (including the GOP nominee in this race) want to give it the power to oversee elections. The race is to replace Democrat Sarah Godlewski, who chose to not seek reelection. |
| Wyoming Voters rejected a Freedom Caucus member’s bid for secretary of state in August, choosing GOP nominee Robert Short, who says he wants to ease voter registration and access. Short is now favored against Democratic attorney Bryan McCarty. Learn more in Bolts. |
| In some states, secretaries of state are appointed by the governor; we’ll be watching the governor’s elections in Florida and Texas in particular for that purpose. |
Attorneys general
| Arizona Four years after winning by just 280 votes, Democratic incumbent Kris Mayes faces Warren Petersen, the GOP president of the Arizona Senate. Earlier this year, Petersen handed records related to the 2020 election, whose results Arizona Republicans have baselessly denied for years, to the FBI. This drew a strong rebuke from Mayes, who accused Petersen of continuing to fan false conspiracy theories about Trump’s loss in the presidential race that year. |
| Colorado To replace their outgoing incumbent, Democrats nominated Jena Griswold, the secretary of state who has championed expansions to voter registration and ballot access. She faces Michael Allen, the Republican DA of El Paso County, who has been a regular opponent of criminal justice and policing reform bills that the Democratic legislature has advanced. |
| Florida After Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Attorney General Ashley Moody to the U.S. Senate in 2025, he also named James Uthmeier to replace her. Since, Uthmeier has followed DeSantis’ agenda and persona, for instance threatening to remove local Democratic officials if they don’t cooperate with ICE. He also instigated the short-lived South Florida immigration detention center that was denounced for human rights abuses. As he runs for the office for the first time, he faces former Democratic state Senator José Javier Rodríguez. |
| Georgia The outgoing GOP incumbent, Chris Carr, defended the restrictive laws that largely banned abortion and restricted ballot access in Georgia. The Democratic nominee to replace him, lawmaker Tanya Miller, says she wants to defend ballot access and abortion access; she faces Brian Strickland, a Republican lawmaker who takes credit for his role in passing the abortion restrictions. |
| Iowa GOP incumbent Brenna Bird flipped this office four years ago and quickly joined lawsuits against the Biden administration on issues ranging from environmental regulations to immigration. She is running for a second term against Democratic attorney Nate Willems. |
| Kansas Kris Kobach, an archconservative who championed efforts to restrict ballot access as secretary of state last decade, has continued pushing right-wing priorities from courts and abortion to immigration since becoming attorney general in 2022. He faces a rematch against Chris Mann, a Democratic lawyer who lost to Kobach by under 2 points four years ago. |
| Michigan To replace their term-limited incumbent, Democrats nominated Eli Savit, the chief prosecutor of Washtenaw County. Savit is known for progressive policies such as not seeking cash bail and not prosecuting people for possessing some psychedelics, though he said he is not proposing to mandate those policies statewide. Republicans nominated Doug Lloyd, the chief prosecutor of Eaton County, who says he believes in a more punitive approach to prosecution. |
| Minnesota Incumbent Keith Ellison, a Democrat who this summer sued to obtain the extradition of an ICE agent from Texas, is seeking a third term. He faces Republican Ron Schutz, a lawyer who is attacking him for not targeting social services fraud and calls his lawsuits against the Trump administration “political theater.” |
| Nevada Democrat Aaron Ford is running for governor instead of seeking reelection. The race to succeed him pits Adriana Guzmán Fralick, a Republican who wants to roll back criminal justice reforms and increase local collaboration with ICE, against Nicole Cannizzaro, the Democratic Senate Majority Leader who also works as a prosecutor in Clark County; Bolts has reported in the past on her role in stalling legislation to abolish the death penalty. |
| Ohio Democrats have struggled mightily in Ohio over the last decade. Can they translate their strong and well-funded campaigns at the top of the ticket into downballot upsets? Democrat John Kulewicz, a city councilor in Upper Arlington, faces Republican Keith Faber, who is currently the state auditor and is barred from seeking a third term. |
| Texas This office has been in Ken Paxton’s hands for 12 years; two state senators are now running to replace him. There’s Mayes Middleton, a Republican who has campaigned on his ultraconservative bonafides, and Nathan Johnson, who says he wants to turn the office away from Paxton’s priorities, including his “antagonistic relationship with local district attorneys,” a reference to the outgoing AG’s efforts to crack down on Democratic DAs. |
| Wisconsin Democratic incumbent Josh Kaul faces Republican Eric Toney, a local DA. This is a rematch of 2022; Bolts reported at the time on Toney’s record of attacking election officials and investigating the 2020 election, in a context marked by debunked conservative claims about Trump’s loss that year. |
Other executive offices
| Arizona School superintendent, and treasurer Schools Superintendent Tom Horne has been a longtime champion of school vouchers, but the archconservative faction of the Arizona legislature still fought him over regulations he proposed. Horne lost in the GOP primary to Treasurer Kimberly Yee, who echoed that criticism. Yee now faces Democrat Teresa Ruiz, former president of Glendale Community College, who wants more oversight on vouchers. Arizonans are also electing a new treasurer to replace Yee. Democrat Nick Mansour faces Republican Elijah Norton. |
| California Superintendent of public instruction California Democrats are sure to have a solid edge in statewide elections. But this race to oversee California schools stands out as the only statewide race where party labels will not appear on the ballot. That could potentially blunt some of the state’s usual partisan lean. The candidates are Richard Barrera, who is endorsed by the Democratic Party and California Teachers Association, and the GOP-endorsed Sonja Shaw, a Republican endorsed by the California chapter of Moms for Liberty. Shaw has worked to roll back inclusive policies toward LGBTQ+ students as president of a school board in San Bernardino County, EdSource reports. |
| Georgia Five statewide offices No state captures Democrats’ ambitions of upending state politics as much as Georgia; the party has had no foothold in state government in two decades but this fall they’re looking to flip the open seats for governor, attorney general and secretary of state (see above). The lieutenant governor’s office is also open. The job has been held since 2022 by Burt Jones, a far-right Republican who tried to overturn Trump’s loss in the 2020 race. This year’s GOP nominee, state Senator Greg Dolezal, worked with Jones at the time to claim that the legislature had the authority to alter the results. Dolezal faces Democratic state Senator Josh McLaurin. Plus: Could a blue wave get so high to also reach any of the four statewide races where GOP incumbents are running for reelection? Keep an eye on the results for agriculture commissioner, insurance commissioner, labor commissioner, and school superintendent. |
| Iowa Auditor The only Democrat who holds statewide office in Iowa, Auditor Rob Sand, is now running for governor rather than seeking reelection. Democrats are hopeful Sand can flip the governorship, but if he does, can they retain his office and give him company in governing the state? Republican Lieutenant Governor Chris Cournoyer faces Democratic attorney Taylor Wettach. |
| Kansas Insurance commissioner Two legislative leaders are duking it out in this open race. House Speaker Daniel Hawkins, a Republican who is making the case that further deregulation could improve the insurance industry, faces Senate Minority Leader Dinah Sykes, a Democrat who says she’d ramp up oversight of insurance companies. |
| Minnesota Auditor Republicans have lost every statewide election in Minnesota since 2006, and state Senator Scott Jensen added to their losing streak in 2022 when he lost the governor’s race to Tim Walz. This year, as the GOP looks to run on oversight of public services, Jensen is running for the open seat of auditor. He faces Democratic accountant Zack Filipovich. |
| Missouri Auditor Republican incumbent Scott Fitzpatrick faces Democrat Quentin Wilson, who used to lead the Missouri Department of Revenue. Democrats haven’t won a statewide election in the state since 2018. |
| Nevada Lieutenant governor, and controller, and treasurer GOP incumbents are up for reelection for lieutenant governor and controller, and while these haven’t drawn as much attention as the governor’s race, watch them as well to see whether a blue wave submerges the GOP. Controller Andy Matthews faces Michael MacDougall, a teacher. Lieutenant Governor Stavros Anthony faces Assembly Majority Leader Sandra Jauregui. Inversely, Democrats are defending the open race for treasurer. Drew Johnson, who founded a conservative think-thank in Tennessee in 2004 and has since moved to Nevada, is running to flip the office against Democrat Tya Mathis-Coleman, a deputy treasurer. |
| Ohio Auditor, and treasurer Secretary of state Frank LaRose, who in his current role has supported new voting restrictions, is term-limited and is seeking the role of auditor instead; he faces Maple Heights Mayor Annette Blackwell, a Democrat. There’s a major tie-in between the auditor’s office and LaRose’s current job: Both have a seat on the Ohio Redistricting Commission, on which LaRose voted to adopt GOP-drawn maps. Also watch the open election for treasurer. It pits Jay Edwards, a former GOP lawmaker, against Democrat Seth Walsh, a Cincinnati councilmember. |
| Texas Agriculture commissioner Nate Sheets, a wealthy ranch owner, ousted incumbent Republican Sid Miller, who’d been beset by serial scandals, in the March primary. Miller is now telling the media that Sheets and other Republicans are at risk of losing due to rural backlash against data center projects. Democrat Clayton Tucker, unlike Sheets, says he backs a “complete pause” on data center construction. |
| Texas Lieutenant governor In most states, a lieutenant governor is powerless. In Texas, it’s one of the more important roles in the state government due to its ability to shape the legislature. Dan Patrick, the Republican who has held the job since 2015, faces Vikki Goodwin, a Democratic lawmaker hoping to take advantage of her party’s tailwinds. |
| Wisconsin Lieutenant governor This office is typically viewed as a jumping board for higher office, but both of the most recent office holders faceplanted in Wisconsin’s most recent governor’s race, dropping out in the final weeks of the race. This time, Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski faces David Varnum, the former mayor of Lancaster. |
| Wisconsin Treasurer This is currently the only statewide office that Wisconsin Republicans hold, so a poor night for the party could leave them with none. Incumbent John Leiber faces Democratic challenger Yee Leng Xiong, a Marathon County supervisor. |
State boards of education
| When they are set up at the state level, boards of education decide the standards and policies that school districts must follow—sparking often contentious battles between ideological factions. Learn about five states where the balance of power is at stake, or where a race offers a window into these debates. |
Colorado
| District 3 Democrats only hold a narrow, 5-4 majority on Colorado’s board of education. The GOP still has virtually no chance of flipping the board this year because the two Dem-held seats on the ballot are in heavily blue districts. But Democrats could grow their majority if they can flip the only GOP-held seat on the ballot: District 3, which overlaps with the third congressional district, which Democrats are also targeting in the U.S. House. The other two seats on the ballot, in Districts 1 and 7, are in staunchly blue territory. |
Kansas
| Districts 1 and 3 Ultraconservatives gained control of Kansas’ board of education in 2024 This fall, Democrats could regain some ground. Five of the board’s 10 seats are on the ballot, and all are currently GOP-held. Curiously, all five GOP incumbents are retiring rather than running for reelection. Watch District 1, which is a very competitive area, and to a lesser extent the red-leaning District 3. (The other three districts on the ballot are in very red districts.) |
Michigan
| Statewide election Bree Moeggenberg, chair of a local Moms for Liberty chapter and a right-wing activist against inclusive school policies, is one of two Republicans running statewide for the Michigan Board of Education. She has self-published a book titled “Pronouns. Pronouns. Pronouns. NOT SHMONOUNS.” Moeggenberg will appear on one ballot alongside Republican Terence Collins, a member of the Grosse Pointe school board, and Democratic incumbents Judith Pritchett and Tiffany Tilley. The top two vote-getters will win the two seats at play. Democrats have a 6 to 2 majority on the board, and they’re defending both seats that are in play this year, so the GOP could force a tie on the board if they sweep both seats. |
Nebraska
| Districts 5 and 8 Despite Nebraska’s conservative politics, the Board of Education is split equally between the parties, with four Democrats and four Republicans. So, on paper, 2026 is an opportunity for both parties. In practice, Democrats’ road to a majority is difficult. Republicans are defending two contested seats this fall, and primary results show they’re overwhelmingly favored in District 6. In District 5, they’re the clear frontrunners, though there’s a path for a Democratic upset. The GOP could capture the majority if it defends its two seats and flips District 8, a Dem-held seat that is competitive based on the primary results. |
Texas
| District 2 This year’s eight elections for the Texas Board of Education are largely in staunchly Republican areas, with GOP candidates mostly aligned with right-wing rhetoric against “woke” teachers and educators; that’s a product of the gerrymandered map drawn by the GOP in 2022. The seat most vulnerable to a Democratic flip is District 2, which covers the Gulf Coast. Boosted by the governor’s endorsement, Victoria Hinojosa defeated the incumbent board member in the March GOP primary and now faces Democrat Thomas Garcia. (Even if Democrats flip this seat, they’d still only have six of the board’s 15 seats.) |
State utility commissions
| Some states have elected agencies that regulate utility services and energy providers; this can include having authority over hikes in electricity rates or shaping investments in clean energy, highly salient powers amid climate change and data center backlash. We’re watching five states where a seat may flip. |
Arizona
Corporation commission
| Statewide election Arizona’s board is all GOP; two of five seats are at play. The far-right faction of Arizona politics ousted a GOP incumbent in the July primary when Ralph Heap, a member of the Arizona Freedom Caucus, won over Commissioner Nick Myers. Heap faulted Myers and Commissioner Kevin Thompson for going along with the closure of a coal plant, which he cast as a betrayal of Trump’s energy agenda, and for not cracking down on environmental and diversity goals set by local public utilities. Heap and Thompson will now appear on one ballot alongside Democrats Jonathon Hill and Clara Pratte, plus Green Party nominee Mike Cease. The top two will win the seats. |
Georgia
Public service commission
| Statewide elections The stakes are clear: the Georgia GOP could lose its longtime majority on a utility commission that has been beset by controversy, in part for approving hikes in electricity rates. Democrats flipped two seats in 2025, the first time in two decades that they won any non-federal statewide race. Two seats are at play this year, and Democrats must win both to take a 3-2 majority. Bolts reported on the legal battle over the body’s election rules, as an ultimately unsuccessful lawsuit made the case that it dilutes the power of voters in the predominantly Black Atlanta region. |
Louisiana
Public service commission
| District 5 This board is only split 3-2 for the GOP but the main question this fall is whether Republicans can expand their majority. Two seats are in play. GOP-held District 1 is in extremely red territory. But Democrats are defending District 5 in northwest Louisiana, now a difficult region for them. |
Montana
Public service commission
| District 5 A Republican gerrymander has produced an all-GOP utility commission in Montana. Two of the five seats are now in play, though one of them (District 1) is massively Republican. Keep an eye on District 5. The western Montana district includes some competitive counties but it has been drawn to favor the GOP. It’s a rematch of the 2022 race between Republican Ann Bukacek and Democrat Kevin Hamm, which Bukacek won by 13 points. |
Nebraska
Public service commission
| District 2 Nebraska’s public service commission is all-Republican, but the sole seat at play this year is located in Douglas County, which is home to Omaha and the state’s bluest area. Plus, the Republican incumbent is not running for reelection and Democrats have nominated a state senator, giving the party a strong shot at winning a foothold on the commission. |
| The only other states with elections for their utility commission this fall are: Alabama, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota. |
Other state boards
| California Board of Equalization Districts 1 and 4 California is the only state where voters elect the body responsible for supervising taxes; the board was stripped of many of its powers last decade but the campaigns still draw millions of dollars of outside spending. Democrats have a 3-1 majority that could shift in either direction; watch GOP-held District 1, which covers the state’s interior, and Dem-held District 4, in Southern California. |
| New Hampshire executive council Districts 1, 4, and 5 This council, which has some power over nominations and gubernatorial policies, is currently under Republican control in part thanks to favorable, GOP-drawn maps. In 2022, the GOP received fewer votes than Democrats across all five districts—but still won four of the five. Democrats are contesting all four GOP seats this fall and hoping that a blue wave can overcome the gerrymander and add to their sole seat. Watch Districts 1, 4, and 5 (which were all within 5 points in 2022) in particular. |
| Texas railroad commission Statewide This agency supervises the state’s energy industry, though Republican Bo French has run on far-right positions unrelated to the board’s function, focusing on stridently Islamophobic statements and calling for the deportation of 100 million people. He ousted incumbent Jim Wright in the GOP primary and now faces Jon Rosenthal, a Democratic state lawmaker. In mid-September, French drew broad condemnation, including from prominent GOP politicians, for a racist social media post that attacked South Asian students cheering at a University of Texas football game. |
Local Offices
Prosecutors
| Los Angeles, California City Attorney Hydee Feldstein Soto was ousted in the primary, finishing behind Marissa Roy, a progressive challenger, and John McKinney, who ran with more conservative support. The result set up a major clash to shape the direction of this office. Learn more in Bolts. |
| East Baton Rouge Parish, Louisiana In Louisiana’s most populous parish, a longtime DA faces his first contested race since 2008; his opponent is a prominent defense attorney who has sued the county over policing practices. Learn more. |
| Cumberland County (Portland), Maine As Portland’s reform-minded Democratic DA seeks a second term, she faces a former DA who held the office for 28 years and is now seeking a comeback. Learn more. |
| Hennepin County, Minnesota The retirement of Mary Moriarty, one of the country’s more visible progressive prosecutors, has sparked a race between a candidate aligned with her legacy and another who wants to quickly turn the page. Learn more. |
| Gallatin County, Montana As she runs for reelection, this Democratic prosecutor has clashed with Montana GOP officials over her refusal to share some information with ICE. Learn more. |
| Douglas County (Omaha), Nebraska Omaha’s Republican prosecutor, who left the Democratic Party four years ago when his party condemned him for failing to press charges against a white bar owner who killed a Black protester, is seeking reelection. Learn more. |
| Forsyth County, North Carolina A prominent foe of criminal justice reform in North Carolina, Republican Jim O’Neill is running for a fifth term in a blue-leaning county. Learn more. |
| Bexar, Dallas, Fort Bend, and Tarrant counties, Texas Tarrant County’s Republican DA has flexed his office’s authority to police elections and democracy, and now faces a Democratic challenger who denounces efforts to police the vote. In Fort Bend County, a Democratic DA is seeking reelection against a GOP challenger who is making the case the office should be more punitive. Finally, Bexar and Dallas, some of Texas’ largest counties, feature open races for DA, though the Democratic nominees are heavily favored given their party’s dominance in local elections. Learn more. |
| Spokane County, Washington An independent candidate says she was inspired to challenge Spokane’s GOP prosecutor after federal immigration agents killed Renee Good and Alex Pretti early this year. Learn more. |
Sheriffs
| Los Angeles County, California Alex Villanueva, whose term as sheriff was beset by scandals, is running for his old job against Robert Luna, who defeated him in 2022. Learn more. |
| El Paso County, Colorado In Colorado’s most populous county, a GOP Sheriff who has sued against immigrant protections is seeking reelection. |
| Sangamon County (Springfield), Illinois When a Sangamon County sheriff’s deputy killed Sonya Massey in 2024, it sparked nationwide protests and a yearlong citizen commission that recommended reforms. The sheriff’s race this fall will decide whether and how to implement the reforms. Learn more. |
| Jefferson County, Kentucky The open race for sheriff in Kentucky’s largest county, home to Louisville, features a Republican nominee with a history of allegations of violent behavior, The Courier Journal reports. |
| Frederick and Wicomico counties, Maryland Frederick County’s longtime GOP sheriff, who’s notorious for anti-immigrant practices and rhetoric, is running for reelection—in a county that has repeatedly rejected Trump. Read more in Bolts. We’re also watching the reelection race of Wicomico County’s right-wing sheriff. |
| Douglas County (Omaha), Nebraska Omaha’s GOP sheriff seeks reelection after a term in which he championed tough-on-crime legislation and tried to convince county officials to partner with ICE. Learn more. |
| Broome, Orange, and Otsego counties, New York The pro-ICE Republican sheriffs in these three counties are running for reelection; two face a Democratic challenger, while the other already lost in the GOP primary but remains on the ballot as the Conservative Party nominee. Learn more. |
| Alamance County, North Carolina A sheriff who has long faced accusations of racism and illegal policing tactics is up for a seventh term against an independent challenger who says he wants to rebuild trust with local immigrant communities. Learn more in Bolts. |
| Buncombe County, North Carolina Asheville’s Democratic sheriff faces a GOP challenger in a context of recurring clashes with the Republican legislature. |
| Klickitat County, Washington The retirement of a prominent, far-right sheriff could lead this county to take a different path. Learn more. |
| Pierce County (Tacoma), Washington Keith Swank, a controversial right-wing sheriff, would see his term cut short if voters pass a ballot measure ending sheriff elections. Learn more in Bolts. |
| Sauk and Winnebago counties, Wisconsin In these two Wisconsin counties, a GOP sheriff who has joined ICE’s 287(g) program is running for reelection against a Democrat who says they’d quit the contract. Learn more. |
| Racine County, Wisconsin In Wisconsin’s Racine County, a GOP sheriff is retiring after targeting election workers for years as part of investigations into the 2020 election. |
City leaders (mayors, councils)
| Many municipalities are electing their mayors or city councilors this fall. Some cities stand out for facing particularly stark or competitive choices—Los Angeles, Tallahassee, Louisville, Portland. But there are dozens of interesting contests. |
Cities in Arizona
| South Tucson Two council seats A bloc of progressive city councilors has faced opposition over initiatives to help homeless people, such as housing assistance and soup kitchens. Incumbent Roxanna Valenzuela won outright in the July primary, but allies Cesar Aguirre and Brian Flagg face runoffs. |
| Scottsdale At-large council seat The right-wing bloc that runs Scottsdale’s council could lose a seat. Two conservatives (Barry Graham and Michelle Ugenti-Rita) plus a more moderate candidate (Raoul Zubia) will appear on one ballot; the top two will win seats on the council. |
| Phoenix Four council seats A group of right-wing candidates have called themselves the “Take Back Phoenix” slate as they run for the four Phoenix city council seats in play this fall. One of the four races (District 4) is an eight-way battle that features different factions and is very likely to end up in a 2027 runoff. |
Cities in California
| Los Angeles Mayor and council Mayor Karen Bass faces City Councilor Nithya Raman, who if she wins would add to the run of democratic socialist wins in mayoral races alongside New York, D.C., and Seattle. The campaign has largely revolved around housing and homelessness and policing. The leading Republican, Spencer Pratt, was eliminated in the primary. Most city council elections were resolved in the primary, but two moved to runoffs that will help determine the ideological balance of power. In District 3, Tim Gaspar is backed by the local police union and former mayoral candidate Rick Caruso; he faces progressive Barri Worth Girvan. In District 9, DSA has endorsed community organizer Estuardo Mazariegos, who is also backed by left-wing politicians such as Kenneth Mejia, against Jose Ugarte, the outgoing incumbent’s chief of staff. |
| San Diego District 2 An expensive race to join the San Diego city council has come down to Richard Bailey, a former Republican now running as an independent, and Nicole Crosby, a Democrat. As KPBS points out, Bailey would be the first non-Democrat in city office since 2002, should he win. (The GOP is only supporting one city council candidate, in District 6, but he trailed widely in the primary.) |
| Oakland Mayor, and one council race As Mayor Barbara Lee runs for reelection, she faces challengers to her right—Brenda Grisham, a key organizer of the successful campaign to recall progressive DA Pamela Price in 2024, and Republican Mindy Pechenuk. The roles are flipped for a city council race in which incumbent Charlene Wang faces Nate Adams, a DSA-endorsed challenger. |
| Carlsbad, Chula Vista, and Escondido Mayors Democrats are looking to oust GOP mayors in several San Diego suburbs. Bolts has identified three cities of more than 100,000 where both parties have endorsed; Chula Vista Mayor John McCann, Carlsbad Mayor Keith Blackburn, and Escondido Mayor Dane White face challengers Francisco Tamayo, Eric Nixon, and Elias Velazquez, respectively. In each of Chula Vista, Carlsbad, and Escondido, local residents have expressed anger that local authorities are not doing enough to stand up for immigrant residents. (Immigrants’ rights activism this spring helped topple GOP leaders of Whittier, another Southern California city.) |
| Chico Control of city council In 2024, conservatives retained a 4-3 majority in the council of this Northern California city when one of their incumbents won by just 93 votes. But progressive candidates could flip the council this year if they win two of the three seats at play. Three incumbents—conservatives Kasey Reynolds and Tom van Overbeek, and progressive Addison Winslow—are up for reelection. |
| Fontana and Richmond Mayors Besides Los Angeles, where DSA has endorsed Raman’s challenge to Bass, democratic socialists are looking to take over several mayor’s offices in California. In Fontana, in San Bernardino County, Joz Sida is running with DSA and Bernie Sanders’ support against Acquanetta Warren, the longtime Republican mayor. In Richmond, in northern California, Councilmember Claudia Jimenez has DSA support as she faces her runoff opponent Ahmad Anderson, Richmondside reports. |
| Huntington Beach Control of city council This Orange County city, under GOP control, has drawn headlines for defying California’s state government, from attempting to impose voter ID in defiance of state law to eschewing mandates aimed at building more affordable housing. Four out of the council’s seven seats are on the ballot this year, and Democrats are looking to flip control by running a slate of candidates. |
Cities in Nevada
| Nevada’s second, third, and fourth most populous cities are voting for mayor. |
| Reno Mayor Kate Marshall, a former Democratic lieutenant governor, faces Kathleen Taylor, a GOP-backed vice mayor. Mayor Hillary Schieve, an independent who won with Democratic support, is retiring. |
| North Las Vegas Mayor Democratic lawmaker Daniele Monroe-Moreno faces Scott Black, a councilmember who is now a Democrat but used to be affiliated with the GOP and has endorsements from the police union. |
| Henderson Mayor In Henderson, GOP Mayor Michelle Romero is running for reelection against Hollie Chadwick, a former police chief who was ousted earlier this year amid a controversy over police officers covering up a car wreck that involved their on-duty colleague. The Democrat eliminated in the primary endorsed Chadwick. |
All other cities (D.C., Louisville, Portland, Seattle, and more)
| St. Petersburg, Florida Mayor Charlie Crist, the GOP governor turned Democratic congressmember, is challenging incumbent Mayor Ken Welch. While the race doesn’t feature major ideological fault lines (it’s officially nonpartisan), the candidates are attacking each other for fiscally mismanaging jurisdictions they’ve been in charge of. |
| Tallahassee, Florida Mayor, and control of city council Tallahassee’s five-member city council is split between a bloc of three centrists and two progressives, a divide that’s shown up in votes from policing to real estate development. Watch three contests this fall; whichever faction wins two will secure an overall majority. Progressive city councilor Jeremy Matlow is running for mayor against Loranne Ausley, a former state senator. (The mayor sits on the council.) Dianne Williams-Cox, a centrist incumbent, faces Dot Inman-Johnson, who would join the progressive faction. And in an open council race, progressive-aligned PJ Perez faces centrist-aligned Tom Derzypolski. |
| Lexington, Kentucky Mayor While Lexington voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race by 18 points, its mayor, Linda Gorton, is a Republican. Gorton now faces Democrat Raquel Carter, a real estate agent who says the city should increase investments in affordable housing and attract more housing development. The ballot is nonpartisan, which is likely to blunt the city’s usual partisan lean. |
| Louisville, Kentucky Mayor, and control of the city council Democratic Mayor Craig Greenberg faces Shameka Parrish Wright, a progressive city councilor active in local Black Lives Matter protests as leader of the Louisville Bail Project. A Republican was eliminated in the primary. Democrats are barely holding on to Louisville’s governing council and the GOP hopes for its first majority since at least 2003. The Courier Journal details the five key districts: GOP-held Districts 11 and 23, and Dem-held Districts 7, 17, and 21. |
| Bellevue, Nebraska Mayor In Nebraska’s third most populous city, GOP Mayor Rusty Hike faces Democrat Kevin Pflager. Nebraska Democrats already run the mayorship of the two larger cities: Omaha, which they flipped last year, and Lincoln. |
| Pine Planes, New York Town supervisor This is the smallest town on this election guide but it illustrates the nationwide backlash against Flock surveillance cameras this year: Town Supervisor Brian Walsh (the equivalent of town mayor) has faced great local pushback upon revelations that he had ordered cameras installed without the awareness of the rest of the town’s governing board, which passed a resolution to require their approval of license plate readers or any other surveillance cameras—which simply reiterated existing language in the town’s code that the board has oversight of such police expenditures. Walsh, a Republican, now faces Democrat Trevor Roush, a member of the town board. |
| Asheville, North Carolina Mayor, and two seats on city council Asheville officials decided in May to support a surveillance tech system that allows police officers to monitor cameras in real-time across the city. Just one city council member, Kim Roney, opposed the proposal, citing concerns about civil liberties. Roney is now running for mayor in a progressive lane against incumbent Esther Manheimer; both are Democrats. Manheimer and Roney agreed in August to support a resolution to end Flock surveillance cameras in Asheville. But two councilors opposed that resolution—Antanette Mosley and Sheneika Smith, who are both running for reelection this fall. |
| Portland, Oregon Control of city council Portland’s 12-member city council is equally divided between a moderate faction aligned with the mayor and a progressive or socialist bloc. Half the council is on the ballot this fall—three moderates, and three progressives— so any ouster of an incumbent could shift the balance of power. |
| Salem, Oregon Ward 8 of city council Progressive and conservative candidates duked it out in the May primaries across Salem’s city council districts, and the liberal bloc secured enough seats for a narrow majority. But in one district, neither of the two candidates on the ballot surpassed 50 percent—because they nearly tied, and due to 14 voters who chose to write in other names. Incumbent Micki Varney and conservative challenger Chris Cummings now face a runoff. |
| Corpus Christi, Texas Mayor The city council suspended Mayor Paulette Guajardo for a month in August on charges of misconduct and perjury linked to a hotel development project. Guajardo is running for reelection against a crowded field that includes Councilmembers Gil Hernandez and Kaylynn Paxson. The race is nonpartisan, though Hernandez and Paxson have drawn GOP endorsements in the past; the local Democratic Party has made no endorsement so far. There’ll be a December runoff if no one tops 50 percent. |
| Seattle, Washington District 5 The left-leaning faction of Seattle politics lost most of its council seats earlier this decade, but it began rebuilding a bench last year. Can they keep that up in the lone council race this year? The centrist faction has held this North Seattle-based district since 2023. In the November election, the more left-wing Nilu Jenks faces the more moderate Julie Kang. |
| Lynchburg, Virginia Control of city council Republicans have a 6-1 majority on the city council of Lynchburg, but Democrats could flip the council if their three candidates sweep the at-large seats on the ballot and oust the incumbents who are running for reelection. And there’s a twist: The local GOP canceled the results of its primary, so now the six candidates that sought its nomination will all appear on the ballot as independents. |
| Washington, D.C. Janeese Lewis George, a democratic socialist, won a competitive Democratic primary in June to replace Mayor Muriel Bowser. She is now strongly favored to win the general election against the Green Party’s Robert Gross and independent Rhonda Hamilton. |
| Charleston, West Virginia Mayor Democratic elected officials have become vanishingly rare in West Virginia—including among mayors—so Amy Shuler Goodwin stands out as the mayor of Charleston, the state’s most populous city. She is running for a third term this fall against Republican Brian Hunt. |
County leaders (executives, boards)
| Parties are fighting to control some of the nation’s most populous jurisdictions. Notable hotspots are Orange County, California, Washoe County, Nevada, and some of Florida, Illinois, and Texas’ largest counties, including Miami-Dade and Tarrant. But the balance of power is at stake in many other contests. |
California counties
| Orange County Control of board of supervisors Control of Orange County, the nation’s sixth most populous county, is on the line this fall. Democrats flipped the board of supervisors in 2022 despite the OC’s longtime conservative politics. Now they must defend two seats (Districts 4 and 5) to keep their 3-2 majority. Democrats Connor Traut and Katrina Foley face Republicans Tim Shaw and Diane Dixon. |
| Sacramento County District 1 on county board Epidemiologist Flojaune Cofer narrowly lost Sacramento’s mayoral race in 2024 after running a progressive platform bringing a public health lens to homelessness issues. She is now in a runoff to join the county board and faces Eric Guerra, a moderate city council member who supported one of her rivals two years ago. |
| Santa Barbara District 5 on county board An AI-generated ad attacking candidate Ricardo Valencia with a stereotypical Latino accent sparked accusations of racism this spring, The Santa-Barbara News Press reports. Valencia is backed by local Democrats and now faces independent Maribel Aguilera; a Valencia win would give Democrats all county board seats. |
| San Francisco County Five board seats The centrist faction of San Francisco politics has built a strong advantage in recent years. Five races will test their advantage once more this fall. In Districts 2, 4, and 6, centrists Stephen Sherrill, Alan Wong, and Michael Dorsey are running for reelection. In Districts 8 and 10, where incumbents are term-limited, voters are choosing between a total of 14 candidates across those two races, which are drawing heavy tech spending. |
Florida counties
| Hillsborough County Control of county commission Trump’s win in 2024 was the first time a Republican carried Hillsborough County in 20 years, a swing that helped the GOP secure a 5-2 majority on the commission. Democrats have a shot at flipping it this fall. They must win all four seats on the ballot; two races feature Democratic incumbents, another two are for competitive at-large seats held by the GOP. |
| Miami-Dade County Control of county commission Republicans gained a majority on the county board of Florida’s most populous county in late 2025 when the commission selected Republican Vicki Lopez to replace an outgoing Democrat. Lopez is now running for reelection against the Democrat-backed Rob Piper. The result could again shift the commission’s overall majority. That said, the election is nonpartisan (unlike other Florida counties listed here) and the board’s fault lines are somewhat blurry; for instance, Lopez was appointed in 2025 with bipartisan support. |
| Palm Beach County Two seats on county commission Palm Beach County, one of Florida’s most populous, took a big swing to the right in 2024, voting for Harris by just one percentage point after voting for Biden by 13 points in 2020. Can Democrats, who are down to a 4-3 edge on the county commission, turn things around? The only two seats on the ballot this fall are those of GOP incumbents Sara Baxter and Curtis Calabrese, who both face Democratic challengers. |
| Pinellas County Two seats on county commission The GOP is certain to keep its majority in this swing county, home to St. Petersburg. But Democrats, who are down 6-1 overall, are challenging two GOP commissioners—Brian Scott and Kathleen Peters—and if they succeed, they’d better position themselves for 2028. |
| Orange County (Orlando) County mayor, and control of the commission Most of Orange County’s local offices are in play this fall. Democrats hope to sweep the entire county government but the GOP could also make up significant ground. To replace the county’s retiring Democratic mayor (the equivalent of county executive), GOP-backed Chris Messina faces Dem-backed Tiffany Moore Russell. Voters are also electing five of the county’s eight commissioners (the panel is expanding by two seats this fall), and the Orlando Sentinel lays out each party’s slate across these districts. |
Texas counties
| Many Texas counties are electing their county judge (equivalent of county executive, not a judicial function) and some of their commissioners. The judge and commissioners form a board, called a commissioners’ court. Here are the contests we are watching. |
| Fort Bend County County judge Fort Bend County voted against Trump in three consecutive presidential elections. But in 2025, County Judge KP George switched parties to join the GOP—an announcement that came shortly after he was indicted for money laundering. George lost the GOP primary to Republican Daniel Wong in March and was then suspended from his job due to his legal case. A judge appointed Wong to lead the county on an interim basis, a decision that infuriated Democrats. They’re now trying to oust him via nominee Dexter McCoy. Plus, Democrats’ two seats on the county commission are also on the ballot this year. To flip back overall control of the county, the party needs to sweep those and the judge race. |
| Harris County (Houston) County judge In the nation’s third most populous county, Democrat Lina Hidalgo, a progressive who has been a major target for Texas Republicans for the last eight years, is not running for reelection. Two former Houston city council members are facing off to replace her, Democrat Letitia Plummer and Republican Orlando Sanchez. |
| Tarrant County (Fort Worth) County judge, and control of county commission In Texas’ largest GOP-governed county, the party’s 3-2 majority drew headlines this summer for cutting dozens of voting sites. This fall, what’s at stake is both the job of county executive and overall control of the county board. GOP County Judge Tim O’Hare faces Democratic challenger Alisa Simmons, a sitting county commissioner who has opposed GOP efforts to investigate local elections and who has worked for more accountability in the deadly local jail. In addition, each party is defending one commissioner seat—Simmons’ District 2 is up, while GOP incumbent Manny Ramirez runs for reelection in District 4. The GOP redrew local maps last year to favor its candidates, a maneuver that targeted Simmons and prompted her to run countywide instead of seeking reelection in her newly gerrymandered district. Democrats would flip overall control if they win two of these three races. |
| Collin, Denton, and Williamson counties County judges If Texas Democrats fulfill their midterm ambitions of winning their first statewide race since the 1990s, it will likely mean they’ll have made major inroads in Texas’ very populous suburban counties. Would they be able to translate such success downballot? Watch the contests for county judge in Williamson County (Austin region) and in the redder Collin and Denton counties (Dallas-Fort Worth region), which combine for roughly 3 million residents. GOP incumbents Steven Snell, Chris Hell, and Andy Eads are running for reelection against Democrats Heather Jefts, Buster Brown, and Nick Pappas. |
| Cameron County County judge, and control of commission Like the rest of the Rio Grande Valley, Cameron County swung dramatically toward the GOP in the last presidential race; Trump lost here by 33 points in 2016 but won it by 6 points in 2024. Democrats hold the entirety of the commissioners’ court, but the office of county judge and two commissioner seats are up for grabs this fall. The downballot situation is very different in two other populous South Texas counties that saw a similarly stark shift from 2016 to 2024. Democrats are actually running unopposed for all county judge and county commissioner races in both Hidalgo and Webb counties. (The outgoing judge in Webb County is a Republican, having switched parties in late 2024.) |
Washington counties
| Washington Republicans have several opportunities to gain county governments based on the results of the all-party primaries, per Bolts’ statewide review. They could also lose key seats. |
| Clark County Control of county commission The council in populous Clark County is split 3-2 in favor of Democratic-aligned officials. Both parties are defending seats this fall, so the board may shift in either direction. Democrats have endorsed incumbent Glen Yung, John Zingale, and Troy McCoy; the GOP has endorsed Bryan Shull, incumbent Michelle Belkot, and Peter Sillimman. |
| Clallam County Control of county commission In Clallam County, in the Olympic Peninsula, Democrats have a 2-1 majority. The local GOP is supporting Jake Seegers’ bid to oust Commissioner Mike French, a Democrat. Seegers finished ahead in August, and the campaign has been heated since. |
| Skagit County Control of county commission Skagit County’s commission has one Democrat, one Republican, and one independent, and the sole Democratic seat is up this fall, so the GOP could secure a clean majority if Keith Wagoner ousts Joe Burns. |
| Other counties The GOP could lose its governing majority in Washington’s least populous county, Garfield, if it loses the one council seat at stake to an independent who performed strongly in the primary. The GOP could possibly gain control of Island and Pacific counties, but that those would be significant upsets based on the primary results. The same is true for Democrats in Mason County. Meanwhile, the GOP could lose a seat in Chelan, Grays Harbor, Pierce County (the state’s second most populous), and Skamania counties, though those results wouldn’t change these boards’ overall majority. |
All other counties (Washoe, Onondaga, Multnomah, & more)
| DuPage County, Illinois County chair In Illinois’ second most populous county, Democrats won the office of county chair four years ago—for the first time in at least 75 years. Democrat Deb Conroy is running for reelection this fall against Burr Ridge Mayor Gary Grasso, a Republican looking to turn back the clock in light of DuPage County’s significant shift leftward. |
| Will County, Illinois Control of the county board Voters in Will County elected an equally divided board back in 2022, and they did it again in 2024. Can one of the parties break the logjam this year and gain outright control? |
| Baltimore County, Maryland Control of county council This county (home to the suburbs of Baltimore but not the city itself) is staunchly blue in federal elections but its local politics are competitive. Democrats only have a 4-3 majority on the county council and, to make matters more unpredictable this fall, the county expanded the council by two spots. All nine of those seats are now up this fall. At stake is the overall balance of power, but watch District 5 specifically: GOP incumbent Nino Mangione, a fervent Trump supporter who decries the “woke” left, faces Democrat Shawn McIntosh. (Mangione is also the cousin of Luigi Mangione.) |
| Cumberland and Gloucester counties, New Jersey Control of county commissions Each party is defending control of a populous county in South Jersey. Cumberland Democrats have climbed back from a 0-7 hole before the 2024 election to a 3-4 deficit today. Three GOP incumbents are running for reelection this fall, so Democrats could flip control if they defeat any one of them. The roles are reversed in neighboring Gloucester County, where Democrats have a 5-2 majority but must defend all three seats on the ballot this fall to remain in control. |
| Atlantic County, New Jersey Control of county commission In populous Atlantic County, one of New Jersey’s swingiest, the GOP has enjoyed an 8-1 edge since 2024; three Republicans are up for reelection so Democrats could close some of the gap. |
| Washoe County, Nevada Control of county board The GOP could lose its governing majority in Nevada’s second most populous county, home to Reno. The GOP currently has a 3-2 edge on the board and is defending two seats this fall (Districts 2 and 5), while Democrats are defending one (District 3). No matter what, the board is certain to undergo huge change: GOP incumbents Michael Clark and Jeanne Hermann have both drawn national scrutiny and far-right praise for casting doubt about election results, including taking the rare step of refusing to certify election results in 2024. Hermann is retiring this year and Clark already lost the GOP primary in June. |
| Putnam County, New York County executive Could divisions on the right help Democrats flip the executive office in this red-leaning county? The Conservative Party has broken with GOP incumbent Kevin Byrne and nominated an archconservative activist, Tatiana Brahimi. Democrat Brett Yarris is running as well. |
| Onondaga County, New York (Syracuse) Control of county legislature Democrats won control of this populous county legislature in 2025 for the first time in half a century. But a new law rescheduled many of New York’s local elections to even-numbered years, so the same seats are in play again this fall. |
| Montgomery County, Ohio Control of county board This populous county, home to Dayton, was Ohio’s tightest by far in the 2024 presidential race. Democrats retained a 2-1 edge on the county board but the GOP can flip control if it ousts incumbent Carolyn Rice this fall. |
| Lorain County, Ohio One seat on the county board Lorain County has seen one of Ohio’s longest public sector strikes this year, with the United Auto Workers asking the county commission to return to the bargaining table. One of the commissioners, Republican Jeff Riddle, is running for reelection and the UAW is mobilizing to oust him. Data centers have also become a flashpoint in the race as Democrat Carolyn White says she’ll oppose new data center construction while Riddle has defended them. |
| Deschutes County, Oregon Control of county commission Democrats are already certain to flip the county board of Deschutes County (home to Bend) due to their performance in the May primaries, when they outright won two of the board’s five seats, which ousted a GOP incumbent and built on the seat they already have. The question now is whether they can sweep every single seat on the board. The two remaining seats went to November runoffs; Democrat-backed Amy Sabbadini and Morgan Schmidt face GOP-backed Lauren Connally and Rob Imhoff. |
| Multnomah and Washington counties, Oregon County chairs Oregon’s two most populous counties are electing new chairs, with incumbents retiring in each. All the leading candidates in each race are aligned with Democrats and have labor support, though they have distinct coalitions. In Multnomah County (Portland), County Commissioners Julia Brim-Edwards and Shannon Singleton are splitting labor endorsements, though Willamette Week reports that Singleton has drawn more support from Portland’s left-wing figures. In Washington County, Nafisa Fai is running on a more progressive lane, OPB reports; her opponent Pam Treece has the support of local business groups and the local police union. Both are county commissioners; a more conservative candidate was eliminated in May. |
School boards
| Conservative efforts to control school boards have stalled if not suffered significant setbacks in 2025 and so far in 2026. But further tests await this fall, the most notable in familiar hotspots across California, Florida, Nevada, and Texas. Below you’ll also learn about a partisan battle in Georgia’s Cobb County, Chicago’s first elections for its full entire school board, and a lot more. |
School boards in California
| Yolo County Beth Bourne, chair of the local chapter of Moms for Liberty, who has been described by the Sacramento Bee as “one of the most prominent anti-transgender activists in California,” is running for a seat on the Davis Joint Unified School District’s board. |
| Santa Clara County Marc Cooper’s alignment with conservative activists who oppose inclusive school policies has created tensions in the Franklin-McKinley School District. He is running for reelection with support from Moms for Liberty against Democrat-backed Gilbert Borrayo. |
| San Diego County The Grossmont Union High School District’s board has laid off teacher librarians even as they increased salaries for coaches and athletic directors; they also pushed against practices that were perceived as too inclusive of LGBTQ+ students and tried to loosen restrictions on school prayer. This fall, three of the four seats held by conservatives on this five-member board are in play, so they could lose their majority. Incumbents Jim Kelly and Gary Woods are running for reelection; and an open seat pits GOP-endorsed Chrissy McCullough against Dem-endorsed Steve Mull. Also in San Diego County, watch a race for the county-level board of education. GOP-backed Cory Brown is challenging Democratic incumbent Alicia Munoz. Among their differences is whether schools should notify parents if a student asks to go by a new name or pronoun. |
| Riverside County The conservative 3-2 majority on the governing board for the Temecula Valley Unified School District has pursued policies such as outing LGBTQ+ students to their parents while trying to remove mentions of Harvey Milk from school materials. Joseph Komrosky, the board’s archconservative president who was recalled mid-2024 but then regained his seat that November, is up again this year. He faces David Sola, who is endorsed by the local teacher’s union. There’s a similar divide in the race to replace retiring conservative Jen Wiersma; the teacher’s union has endorsed Karen Poznanski while Ronda Bowen has right-wing support. Poznanski and Sola would have to both win this fall for conservatives to lose their overall majority. (In the third race on the ballot, both candidates lean conservative.) |
School boards in Florida
| Broward County Governor Ron DeSantis claimed the authority in 2022 to oust four elected members of Broward County’s school board and appoint their replacements, but voters have since ousted several of his appointees. The final one, Adam Cervera, now faces challenger Roberto Fernandez. |
| Sarasota County Bridget Ziegler, who co-founded Moms for Liberty in 2021, is not running for reelection to the Sarasota County school board. In the highly symbolic race to replace her, Dem-backed Jimmy Glover will face GOP-backed Heidi Brandt for the seat. But note: Candidates endorsed by Democrats already flipped two seats in August, ending conservative control, so the board majority is no longer at stake. |
| Brevard County This red county is home to Moms for Liberty CEO Tina Descovich. The conservative group got one win here in the August primary; it’s now supporting incumbent Gene Tent and newcomer Tammy Dennis in runoffs. |
| Pinellas County Two conservative incumbents prevailed in this populous, swing county (home to St. Petersburg) in the August primary. Democrats, hoping to gain the third and final seat that’s up this year, have endorsed Curtis Campogni’s challenge to incumbent Dawn Peters, who is tied to Moms for Liberty. |
| Duval County In August, Democrats already lost their attempt to erase Duval County’s conservative majority, which has drawn headlines for aggressive book bans; they needed to sweep all three seats, but two conservatives moved forward to the runoff in one of the districts. Still, watch District 2, where Dem-backed Donna Mae Westrich faces GOP-backed Donovan Bradley, to see if Democrats can gain ground this year to position themselves for flipping the board in 2028. |
All other school boards
| Cobb County, Georgia In Georgia’s second largest school district, the GOP could lose its narrow 4-3 majority on the school board; in recent years it has drawn scrutiny and protests for removing LGBTQ+-themed books from school libraries and firing a teacher for reading a book that evoked gender identity. The only contested seat this fall is in District 4, where GOP incumbent David Chastain faces Democratic challenger Michael Garza. The board would flip if Garza beats Chastain. |
| Chicago, Illinois This is the first time that Chicago voters will elect a full school board. All 21 seats are on the ballot (though five are uncontested) and the Chicago Teachers Union—a major force pushing for progressive politics in the city—has endorsed a slate of 15 candidates. Another influential union, SEIU, has a competing slate, while a committee tied to business and charter school groups is opposing some CTU endorsees. The marquee contest is a five-way race for school board president that includes Hilario Dominguez, political director of the CTU, and the SEIU-backed Jessica Biggs. |
| Frederick County, Maryland A conservative slate is looking to gain control of this seven-member school board. Eight candidates (half endorsed by Democrats, and half by the GOP) are running on one ballot, and the top four vote-getters will be elected. Candidate Heather Fletcher drew attention in 2022 for checking out LGBTQ+-themed books from public libraries to ensure they would not be available to others. |
| Clark County, Nevada Districts D and G In one of the nation’s largest jurisdictions, home to Las Vegas, the conservative group Moms for Liberty is backing two candidates to oust Democratic-aligned incumbents, the Nevada Independent reports. |
| Washoe County, Nevada District F Two candidates are running for a seat on the school board of Nevada’s second largest county: the more progressive Sheena Harvey and the more conservative Brooke Westlake, who has testified against drag queen story hours in a public library and has expressed sympathy for parents looking to remove books from school libraries. Right-wing activists have fought to gain influence on this board for years. |
| Wake County, North Carolina In North Carolina’s largest county, Democrats have a 7-2 majority after the GOP failed to make up any ground in 2024. This year, Democrats are defending Districts 2, 7, and 9; a conservative is retiring in District 1. |
| Chariho School District, Rhode Island The Chariho School District has seen heated confrontations in recent years as Moms for Liberty activists push against inclusive school policies and the rights of LGBTQ+ students. The 12-member board is currently tightly divided: six Republicans, three Democrats, and three independents. Six seats are up for grabs this year. |
| Montgomery County, Texas Ultraconservatives control the Conroe District’s school board, winning every seat at play in both the 2022 and 2024 cycles. And they’ve moved at an extraordinary scale to ban books, recently removing a book about tennis star Billie Jean King because it referred to same-sex marriage. While the conservative faction cannot lose control this year because only three of seven seats are in play, they could be more vulnerable in 2028 if they lose ground in November. There are two competing slates, one aligned with the sitting conservatives and one critical of them. |
| Midland County, Texas The conservative majority on the Midland school board recently renamed a high school after Robert E. Lee, five years following the district’s decision to remove Lee’s name from the school. Now, a community member who was active against the decision to rename the school after the Confederate general, Latoya Mayberry, is running for an open seat on the board. Plus, incumbent Tommy Bishop, who was critical of putting Lee’s name back on the school, faces challenger Timothy Lirley, who praised it. Last year, when the board passed policy changes that restricted teachings about race and the rights of LGBTQ+ students, Bishop was one of only two commissioners who opposed them. (The other, Sara Burleson, is running for reelection unopposed.) |
Local judges
| Cook County, Illinois Dozens of local judges are up for retention in Chicagoland. Injustice Watch, a local investigative newsroom, released its biannual guide to the records of each judge, of use to all Cook County voters. Injustice Watch identifies five of the 60 trial judges on its list as officials who have faced notable controversies; the newsroom highlights, for instance, that Judge Megan Elizabeth Goldish had a role in multiple wrongful convictions when she worked as a prosecutor. |
| Marion County, Indiana Local judges in Indiana face up-or-down retention votes. The Indiana Citizen reports on a local judge in the state’s capital county, Judge Geoffrey Gaither, who faces disciplinary investigations for failing to handle his cases in a timely manner. |
| Caddo Parish, Louisiana Verite News reports on a local judge race that features controversial prosecutor Hugo Holland, an outspoken champion of the death penalty with a history of racist statements and allegations of misconduct in capital cases. Holland, a Republican, faces Democratic attorney Treneisha Jackson Hill to join the county’s bench. |
| Sandusky County, Ohio Jon Ickes, a local judge on this county’s court of common pleas, was barred from practicing law by the Ohio Supreme Court over 17 infractions, including his use of racist language. But he remains on the ballot. He is the GOP nominee, facing Kimberly Ontko, an independent candidate. |
Other local officials
| Berkeley, California Rent board The Berkeley Tenants Convention and the local DSA chapter are backing a slate of four candidates for the local board that’s tasked with monitoring rents and tenants’ rights; the slate is looking to build on the success of a similar effort in 2024. |
| Omaha, Nebraska Public power district A slate of clean energy advocates are running to take control of the publicly owned utility that serves 900,000 people in the Omaha region, The Downballot explains. Part of what’s on the line is the timeline of phasing out coal energy. |
| Clackamas, Oregon County clerk Mark Reaksecker is challenging County Clerk Catherine McMullen for the job that oversees elections in Clackamas County. Reaksecker, a Republican, has said he doesn’t trust the election system and wants Oregon to revert to in-person voting, a position that conservatives have defended in Oregon despite the state’s popular all-mail system. Reaksecker’s candidate statement also calls for hand-counting ballots, another common conservative request. |